An odd hand... JTc UTG

[elindauer]

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What happened to the button? Fold the flop?

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That's right, sorry.

-Eric

[elindauer]

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I think I would call the turn, and raise the river, planning on calling a 3bet, but hating it.

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I like the plan of raising the river, this is what made it clear to me that I should just call on the turn. this way I can see if the board pairs again in which case I'll have to give serious consideration to folding and will at the very least be happy I didn't raise the turn.

In the actual hand, I called the turn by recognizing that a river raise would be better and due to a sense of gloom about my hands chances against his range. Further thought about all the combinations that drew out with the turn A led my to just call the river.

-Eric

[elindauer]

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You're justing missing too much value if you don't.

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Hi Deranged,

You talk a lot about all the missed value from the slowplay, but don't really defend these statements much. After all, if this is an action flop that players behind may well like a lot, and if the short stack is likely to try to get all-in with any piece, then a call leaves me with a fair chance of getting caught in the middle of a raising war, which is ideal since it allows me to conceal my strength while getting a great a better read on exactly what everyone holds. It also gives hands with no chance to beat me like Ax, Kxs, Qxs, any J or any T the opportunity to hang around and draw to what looks like ok odds but which in reality are drawing almost dead. A bare J, for example, is drawing to 3 outs for 1/2 the pot facing a flush redraw...

More importantly, playing it slower may allow me to get in a turn (or river) raise, instead of forcing everyone into check-call mode. If the BB has a big hand, he may 3-bet allowing me to cap the turn, etc. The lost bets on the flop are often recovered, with interest, on the turn.

In particular, I'm curious if you still believe that not capping the flop is a mistake. I'm sacrificing less than 1 SB in opponent donations while continuing to lie low and leaving my opponent with the initiative, which as we know encourages him to continue firing on the turn. As the turn card was being dealt, I was already licking my chops at the prospect of raising the turn, wondering whether or not I'd get the opportunity to cap it... oops.


-Eric

[elindauer]

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Basically the only hands you are ahead of are hands that the BB could possibly overplayed on that flop. Hands like: KdQd,KsQs,AdJd,AhJh,AdTd,AhTh.

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I agree that these are reasonable hands for him to hold so folding is probably wrong. Since he might hold AJ or AT, raising and folding to a 3-bet is also painful, as there is some risk that my flop slowplay / turn raise convinces him that I simply have a weak ace...

I'd just mention that I don't think these hands are "overplayed" by the BB on the flop. Facing a caller on a draw-heavy board and a short-stack trying to get all-in, TPGK and 2-pair look like the nuts to me.

-Eric

[elindauer]

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Raise from the start and don't stop raisng the flop. You do have the nuts right?

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Yeah, ok. You have the nuts, so raise. This is pretty simple logic and I admit it's often correct. Are you sure it's correct here though?

My thinking is this:

- I can't fold anyone that I might want to fold, with the remotely possible exception of Qcx
- Anyone who folds I prefer to have call for 1 SB
- Players make a lot more dumb calls for 1 SB then they do for 2
- This is an action flop that may be raised behind me, especially with a short-stack in the game
- anyone willing to call 2 on the flop may well be willing to call 2 cold on the turn.


Still like a raise? I'm not convinced my play was the best, that's why I posted it. I am convinced that a slowplay has merit with the nut made hand + near nut draw on a flop that may be raised behind me...

-Eric

[elindauer]

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what happened to your raise button?

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My postflop aggression is over 2.5 these days, so I decided to give it a hand off to rest. I don't want it to be tired next time when I really need to raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

[W. Deranged]

E--

Good comments.

You are right that I am very much of the "value tends to be maximized in multi-way pots by raising immediately" school of thought.

In general my reasoning comes from the fact that you are rarely going to get two-bet cold-calls on the big bet streets, and that on action boards the turn card is generally more likely to kill your action than actually to generate increased action. Basically, there are plenty of situations where opponents willing to put in two bets on the flop or even more when there opportunities are still open become unwilling to put in anything on the turn if the turn is scary. Those opponents who are likely to get excited about the turn card and give you ample action there usually have holdings with strong potential on the flop (flush and striaght draws, good pairs, etc...) and so are going to pay to realize that potential anyway.

Think of it this way. A player with a hand like A9 (maybe with a club), QJ (maybe with a club), and so forth will often pay two bets if you raise on the flop as the pot is big and they rate to have a pretty good hand. They think you could just have a draw and don't want to go anywhere. Those sorts of hands, though, are rarely calling on the turn if you raise there and face them with two cold and they haven't improved on the turn.


The general theory comes from a couple of the following general premises:

1. The more cards that appear on the board, the fewer the number of players who are willing to put in money. The flop is the point where your opponents' hands are least well defined, everyone's equity tends to be closer to average, and everyone psychologically is more excited about their chance of winning the pot.

2. 2 sb is a much less formidable price than 2 bb for anyone.

3. Opponents are much more likely to think your moves on the flop are with weak hands than they are to think the same on the turn.

4. Unless you have fantastic relative position, slowplays tend to work by extracting large prices from a small number of opponents. Flop raises extract smaller prices from a larger number of opponents. When you have many possible customers, the latter is often more valuable.



Just some thoughts. I do think raising here is better. I think the value of information on the flop is not really important, because you have the nuts, are blocking the obvious flush redraws, etc... On the flop, you should be interested in value and not in letting your opponents define their hands.

Also, the fact of "tipping your hand" is one I think you actually have backwards. A flop raise is much more likely to be thought to be smoke-and-mirrors than a turn raise is. A flop raise is very often going to get three-bet, and you can gain value while letting your opponent keep the initiative. (I realize that this may be an argument to not capping the flop, which I'm a bit more open to than not raising the first time).



Anyway, thanks for encouraging me to explain a viewpoint that even I feel sometimes gets a bit too dogmatic.

[piggity]

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You forgot to put one of those [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] faces next to your preflop limp, which I dislike.

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Ah yes, the preflop limp. Usually I raise, rarely I fold, here I limped. However, I think that a good argument for usually folding can be made in these aggressive games, and rarely raising, as a default play. JTs is a trouble hand for me in general, so if you have any suggestions beyond just not liking it, I'm interested.


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I always fold this in EP, but I'm beginning to think I'm playing way too tight from up front.

[elindauer]

Hi Deranged,

Great post. I like your arguments and see merit in all of them. I can see that all of your arguments - players calling 2 cold on the flop more easily, players getting less excited as the hand goes on, a turn raise getting more respect then a flop raise, etc have merit. I think I'm still unsure that the size of these effects outweighs the ones that suggest waiting, especially in this hand.

I generally play fast on the flop and agree that this is often the best way to go, and may be in this case too. I'm not quite convinced, but I'll think about it more. I'm fairly sure that raising cannot be far behind if it is behind at all.

thanks,
Eric

[elindauer]

I called the river and prepared for bad news. UTG shows AJs in diamonds, the all-in guy has the queen high flush draw with Q9c (yikes!!) and MHIG, barely. I went from counting the pot to dodging a 15 out draw on the river...

thanks to all who contributed.
Eric