Interesting satellite bubble hand - Page 2

PuertoKid · #11 12-12-2005, 05:31 PM

it is a tough situation. the min raise by utg+1 is a bad play regardless of his cards. chip stacks started off at 1k, so there are 94k in play and "average" is 9400. He is just under the average. he can safely fold into a win. there is no hand he should be min raising with in this position and the given situation.

if villan calls an all in and loses, he will be one of the 2 shortest stacks, so you probably have good FE here. But it is a tough spot to be in given that hero is shortest stack and the other 2 short stacks are likely to wait to see if he busts before getting involved.

schwza · #12 12-12-2005, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it is a tough situation. the min raise by utg+1 is a bad play regardless of his cards. chip stacks started off at 1k, so there are 94k in play and "average" is 9400. He is just under the average. he can safely fold into a win. there is no hand he should be min raising with in this position and the given situation.

if villan calls an all in and loses, he will be one of the 2 shortest stacks, so you probably have good FE here. But it is a tough spot to be in given that hero is shortest stack and the other 2 short stacks are likely to wait to see if he busts before getting involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you fold AA if you're utg+1?

PuertoKid · #13 12-12-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
do you fold AA if you're utg+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Sirio11 did an analysis of a similar situation in a PCA satellite and found that there is a greater chance of one of the small stacks busting out before villan busts than there is of villan winning an all-in with AA. Maybe it doesn't exactly fit this situation, but it is probably very close.

Do you fold AA here? Well, there is little to gain and a lot to lose--even with AA. I'm not sure I fold, but I certainly don't minraise it unless I'm willing to fold it to a lot of action behind. And if you're going to fold it to lots of action behind, why play it? Maybe I do fold it here. Don't know.

[Edit] If there are a couple more stacks shorter than me in addition to the 3 short stacks, then yes I fold AA in this position.

Black Aces 518 · #14 12-12-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is a tough situation. the min raise by utg+1 is a bad play regardless of his cards. chip stacks started off at 1k, so there are 94k in play and "average" is 9400. He is just under the average. he can safely fold into a win. there is no hand he should be min raising with in this position and the given situation.

if villan calls an all in and loses, he will be one of the 2 shortest stacks, so you probably have good FE here. But it is a tough spot to be in given that hero is shortest stack and the other 2 short stacks are likely to wait to see if he busts before getting involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you fold AA if you're utg+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna turbo fold with 3 stacks much shorter than mine, and only one more bust needed.

PuertoKid · #15 12-12-2005, 06:20 PM

[Mike, the guy who originally posted this on another place and was suprised to hear that is was on 2+2, asked me to post this response to rockin (don't ask me why he doesn't just create his own account)]

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Pot odds don’t apply here, since the tournament ends if villain calls hero’s all-in and wins the hand. There are only 3 relevant properties for villain to consider when deciding whether to call hero’s all-in:

pF – the probability of villain placing in the top 9 if he folds to hero’s all in.

pW – the probability of villain winning the hand if he calls hero’s all-in.

pL – the probability of villain placing in the top 9 if he calls hero’s all-in and loses.

He should call an all-in if pF < pW + pL(1 – pW)

All three are hard to estimate of course, but pF must be pretty high. He’ll have 7000 chips with three shorter stacks of 6300, 4300, and 5100, with the blinds at 400-800 – all three of them would have to survive their allins for him to be even worried. pL is much lower; at 4300 he’s tied with the shortest stack and due to post the blinds first. It’s definitely less than 50%.

#16 12-12-2005, 07:30 PM

As a short stack here I think you're looking to find a hand or 2 to push with to pick up a couple blinds and keep yourself alive. The problem with this particular spot is that someone has already shown strength and will be getting 2:1 to call you, therefore pretty much eliminating your FE. I think the most important thing for you is to have your "first-in-vigorish." In HOH2 Harrington describes this as your best chance to put pressure on your opponents and steal much needed blinds when your M is low. Pick a spot where you can be the first one into the pot, thus putting pressure on your opponents.

PuertoKid · #17 12-12-2005, 09:15 PM

There are no formulas. Saying that first-in vigorish is the most important part of this isn't really thinking IMO. In these situations, it is quite possible that none of the big stacks will let him have first in vigorish until he is UTG. Is it better to wait until one is in EP and push with an even weaker hand just for "first in vigorish"? If he folds the bb and the sb, he will have an M of less than 3. How much folding equity do you think he'll have then? If he has any fold equity, it is now, not after he has paid blinds on another orbit.