Where do you give up? Blind wars at 20/40.

[imported_azalin]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to you in the SB. BB is a 50/20 LAG very common at the 20/40 Party scene.

You have KQo, and raise. He 3-bets you; you imagine he'd do this with a very, very wide variety of holdings (any pocket, any ace, probably anything T9o and up and maybe even some worse hands.)

Flop comes J42r. What is your plan?

Some (useless) results after I hear your thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lately i am trying to just complete in those situations cause the fact is that i dont want to have initiative. I know that sounds absurd and i miss a lot of value but when i c/r the turn (or the flop and then lead) without having showed aggresion before at least i know that he must have SOMETHING to call the continuation bet more often than not. Am i being crazy here? I am interested to hear what you think about that.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]

otherwise i peel one and fold the turn. what else can you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not call down?

[Grisgra]

Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at that a calldown seems good unless an ace comes on the turn. If it comes on the river I think the pot is too big.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at that a calldown seems good unless an ace comes on the turn. If it comes on the river I think the pot is too big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's right, putting in 2 bets to win 5 means that calling on the turn makes sense. Yeah, from now on looks like if I cap preflop it's time to just call down. But I have to put some thought into just complete/calling in these situations, I wonder what we can get here by keeping the pot small preflop and playing jam-or-fold postflop. Given that our equity against this Laggy preflop raiser isn't actually nearly as good as I thought (like I said, probably no better than 55:45).

[Danenania]

Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, not really. If an ace falls it's slightly less likely our opponent has one, plus we picked up four outs to the nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, not really. If an ace falls it's slightly less likely our opponent has one, plus we picked up four outs to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you sure about that? I havent run pstove on this hand but usually thats the case when an ace falls. I guess its a little different since we get that nut draw. I have only done analysis on small pps.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure about that? I havent run pstove on this hand but usually thats the case when an ace falls. I guess its a little different since we get that nut draw. I have only done analysis on small pps.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it on PStove and we still have the best hand 30% of the time an ace falls on the turn, not to mention our draw.