TPTK, can you find a fold?

PoBoy321 · #1 12-02-2005, 02:47 AM

No real read on villain, but he seems reasonable. I haven't seen him go crazy with anything yet, so I really don't know what his hand range is, although I thought he likely had either JJ or AK for a split with KQ or worse some % of the time.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (13.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 15.70 BB

Augster · #2 12-02-2005, 03:16 AM

I think we're well behind, but I'm not good enough to find a fold. After the flop cap, I'm just calling down. I would have been afraid of the BB being on the flush draw, and C/R'ing the river, but I just wouldn't overcall then.

nh.

#3 12-02-2005, 03:24 AM

I am more scared of KJ/88 than JJ here. Or he could have KQ or AK as you said yourself. Anyway, I like the line and thats how I would play it aswell. I can't see many hands we beat except KQ and its possible he would play that hand the way he did here. Hmm...

Shillx · #4 12-02-2005, 03:27 AM

You are getting a good price to calldown here. If you knew that he could only have a better hand, you would fold the turn. If AK is possible then your equity is at about 23% and you need ~13% to call her down (slightly more actually b/c the other dude has some of your equity). The problem as I see it is that AK isn't always going to be played this way by him. So if he sometimes caps it and sometimes just calls prelfop, you are in a very tough spot. I also think that KQ can be discounted quite heavily here. I would venture to guess that your equity is somewere in the 15-20% range but again that is just a guess. That would make a calldown thin, but probably correct.

The other interesting thing here is the flop play. It might look natural to 3-bet, but is a 3-bet really doing anything for us? If the flop bettor has a draw, he isn't going to fold for two more and he probably makes $$$ on all bets that go in on the flop. Hell he isn't going to fold anything that hurts you on this flop and the fact that he bet into both of you leads me to believe that he has something good. I would consider coldcalling and then raising the turn. We get better value that way when he is drawing, and it gives us a chance to throw the hand away if it comes bet and raised on 4th. What it also does is give us some more information. If he 3-bets after we coldcall, there is a better chance that he has a set or 2-pair or whatever. If he just calls, we can be fairly confident that a turn raise (on a brick) will put lots of $$$ in our pocket.

Brad

Agthorr · #5 12-02-2005, 04:20 AM

Any reads on BB? When BB bets out after the strong preflop action (where he called 2 bets to go against two raising players!), he's representing a decent hand, at least kings.

When UTG raises, he's declaring "BB may have bet-out with kings, and you may threebet preflop with something like AA or AK, but I have something better".

I wouldn't fold, but I wouldn't 3-bet the flop, either.

PoBoy321 · #6 12-02-2005, 04:23 AM

I think UTG makes that bet with an OESD or flush draw.

beset7 · #7 12-02-2005, 05:04 AM

I play it exactly the same now. Though I used to raise the turn.

imported_leader · #8 12-02-2005, 05:11 AM

I wouldn't even consider folding this.

#9 12-02-2005, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The other interesting thing here is the flop play. It might look natural to 3-bet, but is a 3-bet really doing anything for us? If the flop bettor has a draw, he isn't going to fold for two more and he probably makes $$$ on all bets that go in on the flop. Hell he isn't going to fold anything that hurts you on this flop and the fact that he bet into both of you leads me to believe that he has something good. I would consider coldcalling and then raising the turn. We get better value that way when he is drawing, and it gives us a chance to throw the hand away if it comes bet and raised on 4th. What it also does is give us some more information. If he 3-bets after we coldcall, there is a better chance that he has a set or 2-pair or whatever. If he just calls, we can be fairly confident that a turn raise (on a brick) will put lots of $$$ in our pocket.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

This is great advice. I would have instinctively 3-bet the flop as the OP did. I guess I need to stop playing on instinct and do a little more thinking.

As for the OP's question: no, I can't find a fold here either?

#10 12-02-2005, 01:06 PM

grunch:

I play this the same way

a bit of an unfortunate spot