Meh

[krimson]

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...but there's something that people subconsciously distrust so much about flop raises that flop raises tend to yield much better results than turn and river raises.

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I think this is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure I like it still in the context of this hand.

In this situation, we 3-bet pre-flop and then raise the AA board on the flop. I don't see how many players aren't going be concerned about this if they have 99-JJ. Not just that we may probably an ace, but that after we raise we might have QQ/KK. I think we risk them folding to much just to gain 1sb more than we would from a playing possum on the hand, by calling down or betting when checked to.

[SnglMaltScotch]

I don't usually 3bet a somewhat reasonable player with ATs. Is this standard. Do we really have an advantage here.

Otherwise I think the play is standard.

[mack848]

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I don't usually 3bet a somewhat reasonable player with ATs. Is this standard. Do we really have an advantage here.

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A 13% pfr raises a very wide hand range when folded to in MP2.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...but there's something that people subconsciously distrust so much about flop raises that flop raises tend to yield much better results than turn and river raises.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure I like it still in the context of this hand.

In this situation, we 3-bet pre-flop and then raise the AA board on the flop. I don't see how many players aren't going be concerned about this if they have 99-JJ. Not just that we may probably an ace, but that after we raise we might have QQ/KK. I think we risk them folding to much just to gain 1sb more than we would from a playing possum on the hand, by calling down or betting when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're at the point that you're afraid your opponent will "put you on a hand" when you raise. What do you think your opponent puts you on when he's holding 99 and you call the flop?

If we know this guy has jack and he's going to bluff it but will fold if we ever raise him, then yeah, it's a great spot to wait for the river. But I'm not sure that's the case on this board. How much are we losing when he has A5s? What about when he has JJ and is willing to call down (happens a LOT more often than you think).

Rob

[TripleH68]

The 3-bet preflop is gamey.

Villain is aggressive and knows how to fold.
He may be raising light here so at first I like the line(we surely cannot automatically put him on a pocket pair).
But do we know he is capable of bet/folding the river?
A lot of players will check and then call or fold this river(pending what villain acutally hold of course).

I think this is a situation where the optimum play is to vary your play.

Semi-hijack: would you give up readily on a flop of K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] against this player?

[Entity]

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I don't usually 3bet a somewhat reasonable player with ATs. Is this standard. Do we really have an advantage here.

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A 13% pfr raises a very wide hand range when folded to in MP2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 3-bet this but I don't think it's an auto-3bet. Running your hand against his range, given his aggression postflop, you're looking at a coinflip situation. However, assuming he doesn't make it to the river all the time when he's 3-bet by another competent player (a fair assumption some of the time I think), it's an edge that is close enough to push.

[einbert]

Hi QTip,

Nice hand, I play it the same.

To those of you wanting to just call down with this hand, I think you guys should reexamine villian's stats and think about how often 2/4 players bet the river and fold to a raise. Especially players that play 28% of their hands.

Happy holidays,
einbert

[krimson]

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You're at the point that you're afraid your opponent will "put you on a hand" when you raise. What do you think your opponent puts you on when he's holding 99 and you call the flop?

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I think a 2/4 player is less likely to give thought as towards what you hold when you don't raise him. (seems like a bit of sketchy repsonse, but I think it's fairly true).

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How much are we losing when he has A5s? What about when he has JJ and is willing to call down (happens a LOT more often than you think).

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If he has JJ and just calls down, we miss 1sb. I don't think JJ is folding here very often (or, never), but we're potentially getting rid of slightly weaker hands like 99 or other smaller pairs. He doesn't need to fold here a very high % of the time for that 1sb extra value to not exist.

Against A9 or A5s or whatever we may miss a few bets, but he could also have AJ/AQ equally often and we're just paying off those extra bets. So I don't really see the value against these hands existing, in terms of putting in more than 1 raise anyways.

Also, you mentioned people have a tendency to not trust a flop raise. I think by the same token, people also have a tendency to call one last bet on the river.

[Entity]

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[ QUOTE ]
You're at the point that you're afraid your opponent will "put you on a hand" when you raise. What do you think your opponent puts you on when he's holding 99 and you call the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think a 2/4 player is less likely to give thought as towards what you hold when you don't raise him. (seems like a bit of sketchy repsonse, but I think it's fairly true).

[ QUOTE ]
How much are we losing when he has A5s? What about when he has JJ and is willing to call down (happens a LOT more often than you think).

[/ QUOTE ]
If he has JJ and just calls down, we miss 1sb. I don't think JJ is folding that often, but we're potentially getting rid of slightly weaker hands like 99 or other smaller pairs. He doesn't need to fold here a very high % of the time for that 1sb extra value to not exist.

Against A9 or A5s or whatever we may miss a few bets, but he could also have AJ/AQ equally often and we're just paying off those extra bets. So I don't really see the value against these hands existing, in terms of putting in more than 1 raise anyways.

Also, you mentioned people have a tendency to not trust a flop raise. I think by the same token, people also have a tendency to call one last bet on the river.

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I don't think it's quite fair to say "this is 2/4" and leave it at that. That's a disservice to those who are playing at these limits. They're not all mindless automatons. I'm not giving him much credit for being a great player, but I'm trying to balance

While I think people tend to call river raises far more often than they should, I think the amount of time that this particular player pays off a river raise with 99-JJ is much much less frequently than he pays off a flop raise and/or turn bet. You're also considering that he bet the flop, turn, and river, which in and of itself, when he doesn't have a payoff hand, isn't nearly as common as it going something like bet, check-fold, or occasionally bet-bet-checkfold.

In the aggregate of all of these types of situations against this sort of player, I think a flop raise is best. I think it's a close decision but I really think too many people on these boards forgo flop value raises in favor of getting tricky and carry that habit over to higher limits where it's incredibly transparent and loses you lots of bets in the longrun.

Rob

[mack848]

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However, assuming he doesn't make it to the river all the time when he's 3-bet by another competent player (a fair assumption some of the time I think), it's an edge that is close enough to push.

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I think this is the key at 2/4. Many TAG players under-estimate the hand range of opponents who 3-bet them preflop. They are expecting AA-TT, AK.