Dreaded stats request . . . 20/40+. Going to showdown.

[Grisgra]

The commonly accepted correct range for going to showdown at the lower limits (10/20, 5/10 etc.) is in the 35% to 40% range. In those ranges, most people tend to win at showdown around 50% to 55% of the time (the lower the WTSD, the higher the W$SD, typically). Certainly, this is my experience over 100k+ hands at those limits.

Now I'm playing 20/40 and 30/60 and getting the living crap kicked out of me -- I used to be on the higher end, going to showdown almost 40% of the time. Now it's closer to 35%. And I'm still winning at showdown a lot less of the time, probably around 45%.

Possible explanations:

1) People are smarter at 20/40, less likely to call down with crap. They're showing fewer losers.
2) People are smarter at 20/40, chasing me off of marginal hands that would win at showdown (bottom/mid pair, etc.) In other words, I'm folding winners.
3) I am one unlucky son-of-a-bitch. My horrible run at 30/60 is over fewer than 5k hands, my almost break-even run at 20/40 is over fewer than 20k hands. Variance, she's just being a pain in the ass.

Yeah, I know I should just post hands, blah blah blah. And I will. But meanwhile . . . can any successful 20/40 or 30/60 SH folks give me an idea how often you go to showdown/how often you win there?

[Alobar]

here are my 20/40 stats for the month. Hope this helps [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My WTSD% has always been less than other folks for some reason, I hover around 30%, while my W$SD is normal at the 52-55% mark. My fold at the river % is also a bit higher than most (45% or something like that). I've also always been a 2BB/100 winner, so I wouldn't get overly concerned if you're numbers are off the "gold standard".

However, I know my numbers are low, so I've taken to reviewing the hands where I folded at the river to see if I can spot mistakes, and then moreover, any trends behind my mistakes. I'm hoping I can crank my win rate up a little if I can find out what type of hands I should be seeing showdown with that I'm not.

Might be worth doing the same if you're feeling like your river play is the main worry.

Also, note that if you're winning without showdown and losing at showdown when being outdrawn, then you're WTSD% and W$SD% will be low. An bad streak can really wreck those stats over a small sample size.

[rory]

37/55. My numbers always converge to that for 6-max+ games. I'm just the weak-tight version of DERB.

[krishanleong]

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37/55. My numbers always converge to that for 6-max+ games. I'm just the weak-tight version of DERB.

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sigh. What great numbers. Would you mind posting your W$WSF? Thanks,

Krishan

[rory]

40%

[Grisgra]

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40%

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I'm not certain but that seems low . . . can I talk you into giving a general (or specific [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) summary of how you're playing preflop/postflop? How often do you bluff-raise or semi-bluff-raise?

Given how insane the action can get I'm wondering if whether it might be time for me to devolve to tightening up a ton preflop and moving to more fit-or-fold postflop. Because clearly whatever the hell it is I'm doing now ain't working.

[rory]

I don't know-- if you want to see we can set up some sort of observation session or something sometime. I think I just play like everyone else on here.

[imported_stealthcow]

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I don't know-- if you want to see we can set up some sort of observation session or something sometime. I think I just play like everyone else on here.

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i think the fact that you normally play less tables and are better at focusing on player tendencies allow you to go to showdown more (correctly) and win more then most.

[TStoneMBD]

my aggressive raise/foldto3bet line works really well at 15/30 but i think i need to make some adjustments because it just doesnt work for me at 20/40 and 30/60. at 15/30 i have a small wsd rate... something like 35/53 but thats because i put myself in positions where i can safely fold to raises while extracting maximum value on my winners. at higher limits they pound you for making bet/fold lines. i know some successful 30/60 players who take a more passive postflop approach, almost opposite of mine. they call alot on the turn and river to get to showdown. im not sure if thats entirely optimal but i think a mix of my strategy and theirs is a good one. mine just doesnt work at that level or im just not good enough to impliment it properly.