MNF 11/21 total - UNDER (middle opportunity)

[playersare]

Pinnacle popped to o44x +115 this morning, creating a feeding frenzy on the unders. right now you got o43.5 -101, and some books dealing o43 flat. plenty of u44 flat available, and I see at least one place still lagging on u44.5 for a decent middle/side (or 4c scalp if you sell back).

books are definitely taking an opinion tonight and at least one of them is going to be dead wrong. chance of 44 and 43 combined push is about 5%.

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chance of 44 and 43 combined push is about 5%.

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Is there a website that has this kind of stats, or did you calculate them yourself?

BTW, thanks for sharing the info

[playersare]

Wong's SSB book has reasonably good charts for historical ATS and totals in the NFL.

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Wong's SSB book has reasonably good charts for historical ATS and totals in the NFL.

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Sort of different sports but... in Maryland v. Gonzaga NCAA hoops game, how would you approximate the probability that Maryland wins by exactly 1 or 2 points? How about Maryland winning by exactly 3 points? A typical line right now is Maryland -2.5.

I have the following wagers:

Maryland pk @-133 Wagered 1130.5 to win 850
Gonzaga +3 @-107 Wagered 1070 to win 1000

I am risking about 125 to hit Gonzaga +1, +2 or +3.

If Maryland wins by 1 or 2, I win 1850 (probability = p)
If Maryland wins by 3, I win 850 (probability = q)
Neither, I lose 125.

Assuming p is about 2*q, I need q to be about 2.54% to break even in the long run.

Winning or losing proposition? What do you guys think?

[DeucesUp]

I don't have any idea as to the percentages in NCAABB so I can't help you there but, how do you figure you're only risking $125?

Maryland wins by >3 you win $850-$1070 = (-$220)
Gonzaga wins you win $1000-$1130.5 = (-$130.5)

so your average risk is about $175 and it's not balanced so you'll be rooting for the Bulldogs (assuming the middle doesn't come through).

Assuming 1,2 & 3 are all equally likely you're risking about $175 to win an average of about $1520 ($1850 on 1 or 2, $850 on 3) so you need to catch one of these numbers about 11%-12% to break even. Sounds high, but as I said I don't know the breakdown for NCAA hoops margins.

EDIT: Typo $850-$1070 = -$220

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I don't have any idea as to the percentages in NCAABB so I can't help you there but, how do you figure you're only risking $125?

Maryland wins by >3 you win $850-$1070 = (-$220)
Gonzaga wins you win $1000-$1130.5 = (-$130.5)

so your average risk is about $175 and it's not balanced so you'll be rooting for the Bulldogs (assuming the middle doesn't come through).

Assuming 1,2 & 3 are all equally likely you're risking about $175 to win an average of about $1520 ($1850 on 1 or 2, $850 on 3) so you need to catch one of these numbers about 11%-12% to break even. Sounds high, but as I said I don't know the breakdown for NCAA hoops margins.

EDIT: Typo $850-$1070 = -$220

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Because 1070 - 850 is 120. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]