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  #11  
Old 11-18-2005, 03:54 AM
xorbie xorbie is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

Yeah, but most people don't know how to play poker. I've seen players I thought were decent call raises OOP with K5o. People will call with any crap if they think it might be the best hand.
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  #12  
Old 11-18-2005, 04:00 AM
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

Fold...yes it's a huge pot, but you'd just make it a bigger pot for the winner (which won't be you assuming you don't hit a queen).
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  #13  
Old 11-18-2005, 04:59 AM
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

I'd fold.

The way everyone is swinging at this pot there are plenty of bad cards that will beat you even if you do have the best hand.

However, that being said the way everyone played this hand you might have those other two guys beat. But that weird raise scares me. Why wouldn't he just shove it in? I'm way more afraid of that guy than the cold caller who most likely doesn't have a set. The pot is way too big to cold call with any type of big hand on that flop.

At least you know all of the players in that hand (other than you) are horrible players and you can most likely wait for a better spot.
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  #14  
Old 11-18-2005, 08:44 AM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

Call. Push a non-2 or 7 turn. Diamond turn is a little tricky. I probably push, but might c/f.
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  #15  
Old 11-18-2005, 08:53 AM
xorbie xorbie is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Push a non-2 or 7 turn. Diamond turn is a little tricky. I probably push, but might c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're starting to sound like me. Better watch out.
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  #16  
Old 11-18-2005, 10:04 AM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

There are worse things in the world. In any case, in this hand, I'm unlikely to fold. With so many people in the pot you are getting pretty good odds on your money. If you win the side pot, you're on a freeroll for the main pot. The board is draw heavy, people get donkalicious with draws all the time. I'm certainly not folding the flop. If an obvious draw hits on the turn, fine - I'm drawing dead, I'll fold. But if it doesn't, I'm sticking it in there.
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  #17  
Old 11-18-2005, 11:00 AM
djoyce003 djoyce003 is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

To all those that are afraid of MP's raise:

If he know's UTG is terrible I can see him reraising here to shut out everyone else and get it headsup with UTG....his raise into the "dry" side pot doesn't scare me that much because the main pot is so freakin big it's well worth it to try to shut everyone else out here.

What scares me I think is the CO cold call.....he could be taking a card off with a draw here given the size of the pot...but with someone still left to act he has to think that it could get raised here....i'm kind of puzzled...he's either an idiot on a draw or he's got a set.

I think if hero is ahead here, he's barely ahead....and if he's behind he is WAY behind. given that he's only got $30 in this pot I just can't see calling here....the times he's right and he's ahead he's probably still going to lose nearly 50% of the time, and the times he's behind he's going to lose almost 100% of the time, barring a runner runner full house or something. He is getting a great price on making the call, but he's gotta be ahead almost half the time I think to make a push or something breakeven right?....assume he pushes for $500 and gets called by MP and CO....there is now around $1700 in the pot. Assume he's ahead of a straight draw and a pair + flush draw.

Qs Qh 247 27.35 644 71.32 12 1.33 0.278
4c 4d 230 25.47 661 73.20 12 1.33 0.259
Ad 6d 414 45.85 477 52.82 12 1.33 0.463

Hero is "ahead" but he's still only winning 27% of the time...that makes this roughly breakeven right.

If he's up against a smaller overpair and a combo draw things are a little better...but if he's up against a OESFD and the smaller over pair it isn't good still.

Qs Qh 376 41.64 509 56.37 18 1.99 0.423
Js Jd 65 7.20 820 90.81 18 1.99 0.079
Ad 6d 444 49.17 441 48.84 18 1.99 0.498

pokenum -h qs qh - jd js - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 291 32.23 594 65.78 18 1.99 0.329
Js Jd 55 6.09 830 91.92 18 1.99 0.068
Ad 4d 539 59.69 346 38.32 18 1.99 0.604

and of course if he's up against a combo draw and set.

pokenum -h qs qh - 6c 6h - 4d ad -- 6s 5d 3d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qh 34 3.77 851 94.24 18 1.99 0.044
6c 6h 487 53.93 398 44.08 18 1.99 0.546
Ad 4d 364 40.31 521 57.70 18 1.99 0.410

ouch.

I think there is a pretty good chance that the set and draw is what hero is up against and if that's the case he's getting in his money drawing dead........the question really becomes what hands is he up against most often and I think a set is just too likely...I reluctantly fold here I think.
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  #18  
Old 11-18-2005, 11:21 AM
xorbie xorbie is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

The thing you have to think about is this. What sort of hand is MP limping here that he is willing to raise knowing he is very likely to get called by any legitimate hand hero has (he essentially just minraised). I peg him for set or very strong draw, and CO with roughyl the same range but adding in some 99-JJ type hands. I agree that calling has great odds, but you're just so likely to be drawing dead, and there's such bad odds at play here because it's so tough to read the outs here. Any A sucks, a 2 or 7, a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], who knows what might make someone a set on the turn.
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  #19  
Old 11-18-2005, 11:26 AM
fuzzbox fuzzbox is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

I pass, MP should not be bluffing into a dry sidepot, and CO should not be bluffing when he cold calls.

I find it hard to believe that 3 players have worse hands than you here. Also, even if only UTG has you beat, then you still have a 3-way battle for the sidepot, and one guy who raised to created it, and another who cold called.

I pass QQ here.
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  #20  
Old 11-18-2005, 11:32 AM
fuzzbox fuzzbox is offline
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Default Re: one pair, insanely huge pot

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Push a non-2 or 7 turn. Diamond turn is a little tricky. I probably push, but might c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are planning to call, and push any non-2/7 board, then you should push now. You are not really eliminating very many hands by calling to push a non-2 or 7 turn.

If you think you are a fave in the sidepot (or would have >1/3rd equity there when they both call), then you should push now. I think the moment of truth is right now, and you should push or fold. Nobody is folding now so decide now.
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