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#1
11-14-2005, 07:12 PM
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Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
2/4 6-max
Very aggressive solid player open-raises to $15 on the button. He could have any sort of playable hand here (76s etc) and will play well postflop. I have KK in the SB. I reraise to $45. I don't think I've reraised from the blinds previously in this session, although I think I've reraised preflop with position a couple times. BB folds. Button reraises to $90. This guy doesn't use the "Call" button too much. He's sort of a "raise or fold" type of guy. I call. Flop is Txx. I check, he bets $100, I go all-in for $321. If he has QQ, JJ, or AK then I win about $200 on this hand. If he has AA or TT, I lose $400. Different table... Donk minraises to $8. I just call with KK because me and the donk have this thing going where he will minraise preflop, I'll call with something, and postflop he will simply grant me access to his bank account and make direct transfers to me... so why scare him off preflop when he is willing to check-call the flop with nine-high and no draw on a flop of overcards? SB with $200 reraises to $30 or so. Donk reraises to $65. Donk typically isn't very aggressive so this worries me. However, just a few hands ago donk slowplayed AA preflop (just calling a minraise) and doubled up a shortstack. I'm not quite sure how the rest of that hand went down. So donk might be tilting a bit, or maybe just doesn't want to slowplay and get stacked again. I don't know. If I just call the $65 I give two people the chance to outflop me, if I reraise it's hard to get action unless I'm behind, so I either win $100 or lose $400. Maybe I should have called this thread "reverse implied odds" or something. Because the point I'm illustrating is that it's not just a matter of whether you have the best hand, you have to consider how much you win when it is good compared to how much you lose when it's not good. It just feels like there must be some major leaks in my game if I am, (to misquote David Sklansky) turning my KK into 72o. It feels sick to shove your stack in the pot when you're drawing very thin each time you're called... normally this is avoided by not playing marginal hands (AJ etc) but KK isn't a hand I intend to give up easily, nor should it be played for set value. In the past I once posted a hand very similar to the first one here against a similar opponent... I just called on the flop, turn got checked through, and his AK sucked out on the river. So failing to protect my hand on the flop gives my opponent two chances to suckout in a monster pot. And if I call the flop, then on the turn he may still bet QQ... but not AK, maybe not JJ, maybe not QQ... so I'll be getting 5:2 to call a push and I may sometimes have the best hand... it's just sick. I think the moral of this thread is that I'm going to start putting a lot more pressure on TAGs with position, because these situations suck. =/ PS. This also applies to situations like I raise preflop with a big pair or AK or something, I flop my TPTK/overpair and there are some draws on the board, and I get one caller. When the turn bricks, I either risk giving a free card to a draw, or I make a bet that will only get called by hands that crush me. Is it too late for me to convert to limit hold'em? End rant. 
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#2
11-14-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
I think you're VASTLY over-rating your opponents. You aren't turning your KK into 72o because in all of these examples you will be able to get all your money in against QQ and WAY worse hands much of the time. You are just wrong if you think people will obviously fold QQ in these situations. I personally will essentially never fold QQ preflop at 2/4 6max. Guys are just too crazy preflop with way worse.
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#4
11-14-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
[ QUOTE ]
Is it too late for me to convert to limit hold'em? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, unfortunately, once you convert to the dark side there is no turning back. What I do after I get KK hammered a couple of times is look at my PT stats and see that I am winning a large percentage of the time and I remind myself that variance takes many forms. Also, check for monsters behind your monitor before you play and then you will not see them during your sessions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (BTW - Nice rant.)
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#5
11-14-2005, 08:40 PM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
[ QUOTE ]
I think you're VASTLY over-rating your opponents. [/ QUOTE ] Just because I chose to illustrate my point with an example against a solid TAG does not mean that the underlying principle is not present against all players. At some point there exists a hand which your opponent will not make mistakes against you. How would you handle QQ or JJ given the action in those hands? I raise with AK to $14, the player behind me reraises to $40 or something. I call. Flop is Kxx rainbow. I check/call the flop, check/call the turn, check/fold to a push on the river. Yuck. Maybe I played it okay but I feel like my hands are tied. If I show much aggression QQ/JJ/etc are folding. If I don't show aggression then I let my opponent decide exactly how big the pot will be. So neither way do I get my opponents to make any significant mistakes.
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#6
11-14-2005, 08:45 PM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
[ QUOTE ]
PS. This also applies to situations like I raise preflop with a big pair or AK or something, I flop my TPTK/overpair and there are some draws on the board, and I get one caller. When the turn bricks, I either risk giving a free card to a draw, or I make a bet that will only get called by hands that crush me. [/ QUOTE ] That damn spot routinely comes around, too. It mostly has to come down to reads, or likely range for given opponent. So I might give a free card to a noticeably tight player or nut-peddler, but I will certainly risk betting into the occasional set when my opponent is either a station, a gazilion% VPIP, or both (yum).
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#7
11-14-2005, 08:53 PM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
If your flop call is correct for his hand range on the flop and your turn call is correct for his hand range on the turn and your river fold is correct for your hand range on the turn then I don't see what your problem is? You played it fine, you got maximal EV against his preflop hand range, you will win money in the long run taking that line, yada yada. Save making him make mistakes for when YOU have position and then you can deceive him into thinking you are weaker than you are and you can get him to put in money with a worse hand or fold a better hand. When you are out of position just focus on pot control and winning your fair share. It is too hard to outplay good opponents out of position.
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#9
11-15-2005, 03:16 AM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
UTG limps. Two folds. I raise to $18 on the button with AKo. One blind and UTG call. Flop 655 with two diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me. I have not raised preflop much recently and I can't remember raising a limper preflop at this table (I've not been around for terribly long). I don't know if they'll give me enough respect to lay down a pocket pair here, but I think my chances are good enough for a bet to be +EV. So I bet $40. They both call...! The turn is an offsuit king. Checked to me again. They each have 80-90% of a pot-sized bet left in their stacks. No specific reads but they aren't donks.
Another table... Two limpers, I raise to $25 in the BB with AA. Two players call. Flop is low cards with a flush draw and perhaps some sort of straight draws. I bet $50, one player folds, the next player calls. Turn is a brick. He has just over $100 remaining. My only read on this guy is that recently UTG had raised to $15, I had called, and he called from the BB with QJo, flopped an OESD and won a big pot when he hit on the turn. (And now that I think about it, he must have been involved with another large pot recently to account for his diminished stack size here, but I don't have any idea what happened.) Should both of these be routine pushes? I just feel like I'm losing money no matter what I do...
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#10
11-15-2005, 03:44 AM
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Re: Worse hands will fold, better hands will call....
[ QUOTE ]
UTG limps. Two folds. I raise to $18 on the button with AKo. One blind and UTG call. Flop 655 with two diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me. I have not raised preflop much recently and I can't remember raising a limper preflop at this table (I've not been around for terribly long). I don't know if they'll give me enough respect to lay down a pocket pair here, but I think my chances are good enough for a bet to be +EV. So I bet $40. They both call...! The turn is an offsuit king. Checked to me again. They each have 80-90% of a pot-sized bet left in their stacks. No specific reads but they aren't donks. Another table... Two limpers, I raise to $25 in the BB with AA. Two players call. Flop is low cards with a flush draw and perhaps some sort of straight draws. I bet $50, one player folds, the next player calls. Turn is a brick. He has just over $100 remaining. My only read on this guy is that recently UTG had raised to $15, I had called, and he called from the BB with QJo, flopped an OESD and won a big pot when he hit on the turn. (And now that I think about it, he must have been involved with another large pot recently to account for his diminished stack size here, but I don't have any idea what happened.) Should both of these be routine pushes? I just feel like I'm losing money no matter what I do... [/ QUOTE ] Hand 2 is a very easy push. Hand 1 really depends on the hand range you assign UTG and the BB based on your past history with them. I guess against a standard opponent I can attempt to do this: UTG,BB--75, 65, A5s, 66, 55, 77-QQ, flush draw It's strange that they cold call here with the draw out there. So, I'd define one of their ranges to exactly 66,55,65 (if you're behind). I'd probably push.
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