Flush Draw vs. Big Bet

[theBruiser500]

i couldn't represent a bluff later. no big hand would ever check on this flop.

[coltrane]

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I fold against quills there 100%.

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I can't see how Bruiser should just fold to the flop raise.....Quills is either bluffing or has a big hand and Bruiser has a tight image and position....Bruiser's getting 2 to 1 immediate and almost 6 to 1 implied - haven't done the exact math but it seems like enough just for a spade (including redraws, etc.) and again, Quills has to act first on the turn either way.....

[Ulysses]

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I fold against quills there 100%.

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I can't see how Bruiser should just fold to the flop raise.....Quills is either bluffing or has a big hand and Bruiser has a tight image and position....Bruiser's getting 2 to 1 immediate and almost 6 to 1 implied - haven't done the exact math but it seems like enough just for a spade (including redraws, etc.) and again, Quills has to act first on the turn either way.....

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Perhaps you're right.

Maybe someone will do the quick math on quills pushing any turn. Give him a bigger flush draw some reasonable % of the time and one spade some reasonable % of the time.

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Maybe someone will do the quick math on quills pushing any turn. Give him a bigger flush draw some reasonable % of the time and one spade some reasonable % of the time.

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Sure:

Assuming villain's hand is unknown (it's probably less likely to have a spade than a completely unknown hand), there are 9 spades left in the deck out of 47 cards, so we make a flush ~19% of the time (I'm going to lump the Ts case with the rest, which'll make this slightly innaccurate, but not very).

So, 81% of the time we lose $2250.

The other 19% of the time we have an expectation of x*$11k - (1-x) * $8750 = 19750x - 8750.

So, our total EV is -.81*2250+.19*(19750x-8750) = 3752.5x - 3485. So, you need your odds of winning after you hit flush have to be ~93% to make this play profitable.

I don't want to pretend to put people at these stakes in a deep-stacked cash game on ranges, but I doubt you're 93% on a spade turn considering that KQs is probably in his range, as is TT and various things with the Ks.

P.S. Do you really have 12k posts? Vnh, sir.

[theBruiser500]

flush draws, sets QJs...