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  #1  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:38 AM
Irieguy Irieguy is offline
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Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 340
Default Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

One of the most common generic types of posts on this forum is the "check-up" post where somebody posts their results (always good) from their last 100-1000 SNGs.

These posts suck.

We all want to get better at SNGs and we all want to know what is obtainable and sustainable in terms of earning potential. These posts don't help in either regard, and can be quite anti-productive in the latter regard.

You don't have to be a statistician to understand how selection bias deems the data contained in these post worthless.

So, the topic got me thinking about a little thought experiment:

Imagine if every registered user of 2+2 played a set of 500 SNGs.

Furthermore, for the sake of demonstration, imagine if every 2+2 poster was actually a LOSING poker player. Assume for a moment that we all had a "true" expected ROI of -9%

I asked our resident Monte Carlo simulator expert to plug-in a -9% ROI for every registered 2+2 user and have them play 500 SNGs.

How many "winners" would there be? 3703
Would somebody have a 20% or better ROI? Yep

So, even if we were all losing poker players playing 500 SNGs a month there could be thousands of posts by "winning" poker players each month talking about their last set of 500 SNGs.

If you want to know if you are any good, ask a long term winner to watch some of your HHs.

If you want to know what's sustainable, ask a long term winner what their ROI/ITM at a certain level has been. (Or search one of the 9384268268726127967234 posts on the topic.)

Irieguy
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  #2  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:41 AM
Seth Money Seth Money is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

Amen. My Brother. Amen.

Seth
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  #3  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:44 AM
SammyKid11 SammyKid11 is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

YEA!!!!! I think I may have posted one of these stupid posts a few months ago on my first 1000 SnG's. I really only did it because I'd seen a lot of those posts, and it's only been in the past few weeks or so that I've realized how incredibly stupid they are.

I say, if you want to make a results post, it should be minimum 5000 SnG's at a given level. If you're winning after 5000, you're probably a winner.

Even then, though, who really cares about my stats? No one except me and my landlord. It's just self-indulgent. And if you're posting 500 bad SnG's, it's a plea for pity. Yuck. Good post, Irie.
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  #4  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:44 AM
bones bones is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

I imagine the typical "My last 500 sngs at $XX buyin" poster expects this sort of validation.

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  #5  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:45 AM
splashpot splashpot is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

Dude, that is one low res picture.
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  #6  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:45 AM
SammyKid11 SammyKid11 is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

You can bet that if a Penis post actually did RECEIVE this kind of validation, I would be posting my stats often.
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  #7  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:45 AM
SCfuji SCfuji is offline
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Posts: 467
Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

you mean my 5000% roi over my last three sitngos isnt because of my 1337 skills?
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  #8  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:47 AM
bones bones is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

It's hard to find a quality pic of 2 girls kissing some douchebag for no good reason.
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  #9  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:47 AM
johnnybeef johnnybeef is offline
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Default Why I hate Irieguy

he introduced me to Vegas strip clubs.....
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  #10  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:47 AM
Irieguy Irieguy is offline
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Default Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts

Bones,

If that picture is of you, you are my type of dude.

Irieguy
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