Too much heat for bottom set?

[pzhon]

Online NL, 6-handed. <font color="white"> 1131322883 </font>

Hero is UTG, covers the table.
CO has 140 BB (makes many overbets, draws and made hands).
BB has 100 BB (just sat in, no reads).

Preflop:
Hero limps with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], fold, CO raises to 4 BB, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop (3 players, 12.5 BB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, CO raises to 30 BB.
BB raises to 96 BB (all-in). Hero...?

I didn't call with 44 to hope to hit top set. I liked the flop. However, that's a lot of action. I'd hate to be up against a higher set, and the BB could easily play 77 or 88 this way.

[xorbie]

Raise the flop bet the first time around and it makes this hand easier. Id probably fold as played, because unless you end up against 56 and 99 you're in shitty shape, and you easily be drawing to one out or running pair.

[Lucky]

This is the perfect example of when you fold bottom set.

The only way your ok is when CO has the AA and BB has played 9T like a lunatic.

BB has straight or bigger set almost all the time.

I'm the one that voted raise, some how I missed this:

[ QUOTE ]
BB raises to 96 BB (all-in). Hero...?

[/ QUOTE ]

change that vote to a fold. As other's have said, I like raising the flop.

And quit hiding in the probability forum, post more poker hands!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[odawg09090]

What about ending up against 56 and AA, KK or QQ (likely for CO) or 78 and AA (where you're way ahead)?

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
What about ending up against 56 and AA, KK or QQ (likely for CO) or 78 and AA (where you're way ahead)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I did not see that CO raised PF. Call.

[pzhon]

The poll results are interesting so far, but let me toss out an additional question. If I call or raise, the PFR will have an interesting decision. With which hands should the preflop raiser stay in? A8? JJ? AA? 87? T9?

[Mr. Curious]

You have 33% pot equity on the flop against an overpair and a made straight, justifying a call if you can get the CO to call too, perhaps getting him to pushing over the top and give you a decent side pot to win.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1298696
pokenum -h 4s 4d - 6h 5h - as ad -- 8s 7c 4h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s 7c 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s 4d 301 33.33 593 65.67 9 1.00 0.337
6h 5h 574 63.57 320 35.44 9 1.00 0.639
As Ad 19 2.10 875 96.90 9 1.00 0.024


Pushing all-in is bad because it only picks up ~1% of pot equity for you:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1298704
pokenum -h 4s 4d - 6h 5h -- 8s 7c 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7c 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s 4d 339 34.24 642 64.85 9 0.91 0.347
6h 5h 642 64.85 339 34.24 9 0.91 0.653


The bad times are when CO or BB has a higher set.
Since you don't have any reads, I think a fold is the best choice since I can't imagine CO folding here.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Since you don't have any reads, I think a fold is the best choice since I can't imagine CO folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This last argument doesn't make sense. I'm much more likely to be ahead of the CO than the BB, so it helps me if the CO makes a "marginal" call with an overpair, giving me the odds to draw to a full house if necessary. That dead money would let me call even if the BB has a higher set more than 60% of the time. In fact, if I can win the rest of the CO's money, that will make up for having only one out against the BB more than 80% of the time, as my net investment will be 56 BB to try to win the 300 BB main pot.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop:
Hero limps with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], fold, CO raises to 4 BB, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop (3 players, 12.5 BB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, CO raises to 30 BB.
BB raises to 96 BB (all-in). Hero...?


[/ QUOTE ]
Hero calls 92 BB, CO calls 66 BB.

Turn (3 players, 300.5 BB): 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 80 BB, CO calls 40 BB all-in.

River (3 players, 380.5 BB): 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

CO had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
BB had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero wins 380.5 BB - rake with three of a kind, fours.

I called the initial bet on the flop because I thought it was likely that the CO would raise. Given that he raised so much, it was hard for the BB to do other than push or fold, so I felt that push represented a little bit less strength. I thought the CO would be unable to correctly fold an overpair if I just called, but might be able to fold if I pushed, so I just called with the intention of pushing on any turn.

As I commented elsewhere, if I can expect to win a lot in the sidepot, I only need to be ahead of the BB about 20% of the time.

I was pretty surprised that the BB had KK.