Was this stupid or pointless?

octop · #1 10-23-2005, 06:21 AM

2/4 NL
Im in BB with 500
UTG has around 260 to start the hand
Table has been lose in calling raises and bets around 1/2-2/3 the size of the pot

I get JQ hearts UTG makes it 10 to go 4 callers I call

Flop 5 9 10 2 hearts ( 9 and 10 of hearts)
I check figuring UTG will bet 30-40 and get 1 or 2 callers then i will cr the field huge hoping to take it down.

UTG bets 100 into the 60ish dollar pot- WTF
Well I didnt think much and shoved- basically I had my mind made up about the big c/r and did not take into acount his bet size or his stack. (For example if he had a fullstack and had to call 300 more when I went all in and I might have some fold equity over an overpair. Being he only had to call 150 more I think I had 0 equity.)

How bad was my play? Was it incredibly stupid or just increasing my varience?

#2 10-23-2005, 06:32 AM

It increases variance of course but you're ahead of alot of hands that would do this. Does him being UTG reduce the hands that he raises preflop with?

18,810 games 0.031 secs 606,774 games/sec

Board: 5c 9h Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.0569 % 52.77% 00.29% { QhJh }
Hand 2: 46.9431 % 46.66% 00.29% { JJ+, AhKh }

Would anybody really do this w/o any of these hands? I can't really think of any other hand range to put him on that would do this since all the broadway hearts are gone.

phrosty · #3 10-23-2005, 06:33 AM

What's stupid about putting your money in with the best hand-you're a favorite against anything but a set and only a small dog to that. Given the read you have on the table I don't see how you don't make this play.

kitaristi0 · #4 10-23-2005, 06:34 AM

If he has KK it's a coinflip. If he has AA you're 56% to win. If he has 99 you're still 42% to win, so with all the dead money in the pot I think this is +EV.

octop · #5 10-23-2005, 06:59 AM

Well i think the best part about monster draws like this is having a lot of fold equity which I think went out the window here being he bet so much with so little left.
If he was deeper I think this play would be better b/c he may fold kings figuring I have a set and hes slaughted or hes barely ahead of a monster draw.

#6 10-23-2005, 07:01 AM

A semibluff is a case in which you're trying to make a better hand fold while if he calls you can improve to the best hand.

In this case you have the best hand and he is drawing against you making your hand which means you theoritically make money even if you miss.

#7 10-23-2005, 07:49 AM

I actually prefer putting him all-in because he's a short stack. If he had you covered, I wouldn't like it so much. I don't want to just shove all my money in and pray. I hate that. But since he doesn't have much left and with the dead money in the pot already, this is +EV. Against a big stack this might be pretty neutral EV.

#8 10-23-2005, 07:59 AM

I'm trying to understand what you're saying but are you saying you check call this flop if it's deeper? If you c/r and he pushes are you folding?

If it's deeper it changes the hand considerably since he doesn't push when checked to and you actually do have folding equity vs. whatever he has assuming not a set.

[ QUOTE ]
Against a big stack this might be pretty neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The numbers don't change because of the deeper stack it's just more variance.

octop · #9 10-23-2005, 08:01 AM

If we're deeper then Im check raising huge becuase I think I have fold equity.

#10 10-23-2005, 08:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to understand what you're saying but are you saying you check call this flop if it's deeper? If you c/r and he pushes are you folding?

If it's deeper it changes the hand considerably since he doesn't push when checked to and you actually do have folding equity vs. whatever he has assuming not a set.

[ QUOTE ]
Against a big stack this might be pretty neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The numbers don't change because of the deeper stack it's just more variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

The dead money in the pot would be smaller relative to the amount of money you would have to put in (a lot). Thus the odds change. Pot odds. If there's $2 already in the pot and you have to put another $100 in on a 50/50 shot, I don't really like that. But if there's already $50 in the pot and I have to put another $100 in on a 50/50 shot, I like that. Pot odds.

And to the OP, you have very little fold equity anyway. The guy raised preflop, and overbets the pot on the flop. It looks a big overpair protecting against a draw heavy board, or someone who hit a set and is protecting against a draw heavy board. You would have to have a real good read on him that he's capable of laying down an overpair after putting that much money into the pot in order for you to think you have much fold equity.