Tough spot UTG short stack, deep in the 11r

[redrooski24]

There's about 30 left from the original 1400+ that started. Table has been playing pretty well, maybe a little on the tight side.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30000 (9 handed) converter

Button (t611315)
SB (t427512)
BB (t707076)
Hero (t258788)
UTG+1 (t216058)
MP1 (t433554)
MP2 (t178304)
MP3 (t302707)
CO (t507764)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
Hero...

I'd like to get a good discussion going about this, because I often find myself in similar situations at different stages in MTTs.

[billyjex]

just curious what the antes are at this stage?

[ClaytonN]

1500

[Exitonly]

Alright, figured i'd do a bit of math..

88+,AJs+,AQo+ Calls your push, maybe i could tighten that up a bit, but it'll do for this.

that's roughly 6% of hands and 8 people left to act so .96 ^ 8 chance you take the blinds.

i'll say theres 55k in the pot (30k + 15k + antes)

so .61 * 55 = +33.55k


now 39% of the time you'll be a 70/30 unnderdog, so

.7 * -260 = -182k
.3 * 320 = 96k
96k - 182k = -86k

so .39 * -86 = -33.54

so 33.55 - 33.54 = +.01k or +10 chips on average.


So obviously it's damn close, and on things this close i'd tend to lean towards playing it safe.

but theres an argument for taking the gamble because you need to make chips. But i don't this is the spot.

[ClaytonN]

like exit said its very damn close.

i lean towards folding bc you have short(ish) stacks on your left which you can exploit in LP with the table playing tight.

stacks the way they are, you dont need these blinds now.

[redrooski24]

Exit, in that math, don't you need to include the times that I'm racing against 88 and 99(which I say are probably calling me)? I think this would tilt the numbers slightly more in the favor of a push, but not by too much. I'm pretty sure AJ in this spot is an easy push, yes?

[Exitonly]

i did... you're 70/30 vs that range of hands, which includes 88 and 99. You're just in real bad shape all the other times.

[redrooski24]

Ahh ok, had a feeling that's what it might have been, guess I'm too tired.

[ QUOTE ]
that's roughly 6% of hands and 8 people left to act so .96 ^ 8 chance you take the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um. Isn't that .94?

Or am I an idiot?

[Exitonly]

Whoops yea .94, when i put it in the calculator i used the right number.