Can the probability of God existence change?

Lestat · #1 09-30-2005, 01:25 AM

Or is it static?

If intelligent life (that of which matches at least our own intelligence), were discovered elsewhere in the universe, would this increase, decrease, or not change the probability of a Creator?

What if it could somehow be proven with 100% certainty that we were the only intelligent life in the universe. Notice that this is very different from proving the impossibility for other intelligent life forms). Would the fact that we were solely alone in this vast seemingly infinite universe alter probability of a Creator's existence? If so, would that probability increase, decrease, or remain unchanged?

What other things, if proven or disproven, might alter the probability of God's existence particularily for such staunch athiests like Sklansky?

I doubt any one miracle would be enough for sklansky, save for a voice coming out of the sky. But certainly there must be things which he would entertain adjusting the odds. ??

theweatherman · #2 09-30-2005, 01:48 AM

hmm, it seems that the probability of existence is always either 0% (doesnt exist) or 100% (does exist). There isnt really any third choice such as 80% (something existing 8 times out of ten). Based on this then Id say that the probability of Gods existence is always the same; either 0% or 100 %

RainDog · #3 09-30-2005, 03:05 AM

While I disagree as to the probability of existance always being 0% or 100%, I do agree that the probability of God's existence will always remain the same. This seems to be the case while alive anyways. After death maybe there is a possibility of a shift in probability...ok that sounds bizarre. I'm tired.

David Sklansky · #4 09-30-2005, 05:38 AM

"I doubt any one miracle would be enough for sklansky, save for a voice coming out of the sky. But certainly there must be things which he would entertain adjusting the odds."

Very frustrtaing. The probability of ANYTHING changes, (from the vantage point of the oddsmaker or collective oddsmakers) any time ANY relevant information is received. If there was no intelligent life anywhere else in the universe, it would significantly raise the probability of the existence of a personal god. If we built computers that were conscious, it would significntly decrease the chances. Smaller events have smaller effects.

#5 09-30-2005, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hmm, it seems that the probability of existence is always either 0% (doesnt exist) or 100% (does exist). There isnt really any third choice such as 80% (something existing 8 times out of ten). Based on this then Id say that the probability of Gods existence is always the same; either 0% or 100 %

[/ QUOTE ]

"Probability" means the likelihood of something occurring based on incomplete information.

For example, taking your stance it's either 100% or 0 that your flush will hit on the river. But because we don't know everything, we assign probabilities. The question being asked is whether or not certain information would change an individual's beliefs about the likelihood of God.

The answer is there isn't a sane person who wouldn't change their probability assessment based on strong evidence. For me such evidence would be a verifiable miracle, such as a whole ward of a hospital getting cured overnight, God appearing and talking to 100,000 people at once, a hurricane (such as Rita) disappearing in a minute, a faith healer curing a visible external injury instantly, someone brought back from several days dead, all the bibles in the world suddenly becoming clear and unambiguous There are a million things that would make me a believer, not one has been proven to happen.

#6 09-30-2005, 06:09 AM

First, why do you think that learning that we are the only life in the universe would change the probability of a God existing?

Second, I want the probability that Superman exists. Why?
Because it's the same probability that a God exists.
Some things shouldn't be given a probability based on the absurdity of the content.

Shooby

#7 09-30-2005, 07:54 AM

The probability that a god exists is completely subjective. Everyone has their own idea of what the probability of a god is. I referred to this as our "Agnostic Factor" in an older thread called "Math Unites Atheists and Believers". Of course, random occurences are going to affect our personal probability of god. As Mr.Sklansky has said, proof of humans as the only intelligent life in the universe would affect his personal probability for a god.
For the guy who said that the probability of a god is either 1 or 0. Do you understand what a probability is? With no evidence to prove or disprove god, the probability of a god has to be between 0 and 1, but never 1 or 0. Because nobody can say with 100% certainty that there is or isn't a god. If I hit my flush draw on the river, should I have said that it was 100% before it happened?

chezlaw · #8 09-30-2005, 08:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
For the guy who said that the probability of a god is either 1 or 0. Do you understand what a probability is? With no evidence to prove or disprove god, the probability of a god has to be between 0 and 1, but never 1 or 0. Because nobody can say with 100% certainty that there is or isn't a god. If I hit my flush draw on the river, should I have said that it was 100% before it happened?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a real difference, its just a different way of looking at the same thing. The probability of making the flush is 1 or 0 if the situation is deterministic (that's what deterministic means). If its a random event then its a probability. As we assume (hopefully correctly) that no-one has enough information to do better than as if it was a random event, the best we can do is to go with the probability.

Similarly with god, either there is a god or there isn't (1 or 0) but as we can't determine whether there is or not, some believe they can put a degree of certainty on their belief in god.

chez

#9 09-30-2005, 08:32 AM

Why not put a degree of certainty on god? This can then give us a way of classifying a person's belief or disbelief in god. The "Agnostic Factor" is a great way to determine how religious or unreligious a person is. The online dating implications alone give it a justification for use. I mean, if you meet a girl online who says that she's blonde 5'10'' , 120 pounds and religious, then what the heck does the last part mean? Does it mean that she's a good person who happens to wear a cross around her neck? Or are you going to wake up one night to find that she's performing an exorcism on you screaming "the power of Christ compells you"? Wouldn't it be easier to meet her and have her say "I'm blond, 6ft tall, 120 pounds, I like long walks on the beach, and I feel that there is a 1/10 chance of god existing". Now you know who you're talking to and what you can expect from the person. It's late and I've been drinking, so maybe this is incoherent rambling, but it seems like a good idea. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

bocablkr · #10 09-30-2005, 09:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First, why do you think that learning that we are the only life in the universe would change the probability of a God existing?

Second, I want the probability that Superman exists. Why?
Because it's the same probability that a God exists.
Some things shouldn't be given a probability based on the absurdity of the content.

Shooby

[/ QUOTE ]

If intelligent life (that of which matches at least our own intelligence), were discovered elsewhere in the universe, it would greatly decrease the probability of a creater - do you see why?

Do you think that they would believe in god and that they were made in his image (assuming they look very different from us)? Also, would they have their own version of Jesus?