750K AK hand

[ZeroPointMachine]

Sorry no HH.
750K Party
Blinds 500/1000 (~350 players left)

Table has been very tight. There are several very solid players and everybody is respecting the pre-flop raises and re-raises. Every hand is raised and flops are few and far between. Villain in this hand is very solid player on my immediate right. I have re-raised Villain with KK twice in the last three orbits and taken it down. We are both in middle position.

Hero ~30K
Villain ~13K
Hero is dealt AKs
Folded to Villain. Villain raises to 3K. Hero?

I actually considered folding, raising and calling here. I had just built my stack from 4K to 30K in the last 30 minutes and was feeling a little protective. Given our past history I felt Villain was very strong from this position. I didn’t think he was going anywhere this hand.

I decided to call and see if I improved. Rest of the table folds. Pot=7500

Flop KQ 9 . the K and Q are suited.

Villain goes all-in for remaining 10K. Pot=17.5K. Hero?

[zambonidrivr]

I am folding here, only because you made a big mistake preflop by not re-raising. I know what you are saying about prior action, but you need to deal with this sort of thing one hand at a time. That's just my opinion. Who knows where you are at after the flop... you have a highly coordinated board, with matching suits. I think you have to lay this down given the mistake preflop, and the texture of the board. You have a very nice stack, and I don't think it's worth pissing away here.

I put villain all-in preflop.

[Pasterbator]

Fold? I dont think i can find a fold here. He's pushing 10k into a 7.5k pot. I think something like 1010/JJ, AJs/AQs (with the flush draw) is more likely than KQ/J10/99.

So I call.

Edit: I also think you can avoid all of this with an all in preflop. Based on your previous confrontations, he might call you with AJ/AQ.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold? I dont think i can find a fold here. He's pushing 10k into a 7.5k pot. I think something like 1010/JJ, AJs/AQs (with the flush draw) is more likely than KQ/J10/99.

So I call.

Edit: I also think you can avoid all of this with an all in preflop. Based on your previous confrontations, he might call you with AJ/AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[zambonidrivr]

nothin like donkin off half of your stack when you have no idea where you're at. i understand the odds stance on this, but you have 30K the bb. U certainly can find higher +ev spots than this to take stabs at.

[ZeroPointMachine]

Yeah….. I wanted to avoid playing for Villains whole stack without a made hand. I could have put him all-in pre-flop. But that doesn’t really give you much info does it. Should I have min-raised it? I really put Villain on a very tight range here JJ+, AK,AQs. He might have laid down JJ or QQ to a minraise. Can you fold if he comes over the top of your min-raise? Can you fold to his pre-flop raise (how weak-tight is that).

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
nothin like donkin off half of your stack when you have no idea where you're at. i understand the odds stance on this, but you have 30K the bb. U certainly can find higher +ev spots than this to take stabs at.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like how you call it the "odds stance" as if the odds are some weird thing to base your decision on. Yeah, every time a guy pushes out of nowhere he might have the nuts, but over the long haul you're going to give up a lot of chips by folding to him every time.

[Pasterbator]

[ QUOTE ]
I wanted to avoid playing for Villains whole stack without a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldnt look at it like that. He has under half your stack. You should put him to the test here preflop. He's the one that should be worried, not you.

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have min-raised it? I really put Villain on a very tight range here JJ+, AK,AQs. He might have laid down JJ or QQ to a minraise. Can you fold if he comes over the top of your min-raise? Can you fold to his pre-flop raise (how weak-tight is that).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't minraise. Ever. The plan to fold minraise and fold to a reraise is very bad. With his stack, he's not laying down JJ/QQ. And folding AKs to the original raise without a strong read that he has AA/KK is very weak tight.

I think you're just being results oriented, since he probably had AA.

[ZeroPointMachine]

The following analysis was done mainly for my own practice. Please let me know if there are any major flaws.

Pre-flop range of 99+,AJs+,AQo+
I think this is the absolute broadest range for Villain.
There are 30 ways he can hold a PP(6 each for 99-QQ and 3 for KK/AA)
There are 9 ways he can hold AJs+
There are 15 ways he can hold AQo+
Let’s give him 5 other random/steal holdings.

59 possible holdings

If I re-raise all-in what does he fold?

I estimate he folds AJs and AQo or rags 100% of the time. He also folds AQs,99 and TT 50% of the time. Given his stack size that should be about it.

AJs + AQo + rags = 17 hands
(AQs + 99 + TT) / 2 = 7.5 hands

24.5/59 = 41.5%

I win 4500 (assuming no other callers) 41.5% of the time.

If he calls the pot is 27,500 and he is holding the following hands (with my EV):
AA-12% (3 hands) .12 x 3/34.5 = .010
KK-34% (3 hands) .34 x 3/34.5 = .030
99-QQ-46% (18 hands) .46 x 18/34.5 = .240
AKs-50%(3 hands) .50 x 3/34.5 = .044
AKo-52%(6 hands) .52 x 6/34.5 = .090
AQs-71%(1.5 hands) .71 x 1.5/34.5= .031

34.5 hands with my EV at 44.5%

I win 14,500 44.5% of the time he calls.

I lose 13,000 55.5% of the time he calls.

EV all-in = (4500 x .415) + .585(14500 x .445) - .585(13000 x .555)

EV all-in = 1423 (less than 1.5 BB)

Assuming no glaring errors in this calculation (no promises) is it still correct to push all-in here for the risk-reward ratio?

As the big stack at the table with 30BB I had plenty of opportunities to pickup 1.5BB without risking 13BB.