AJ on bubble

[Manque]

$20+2

***** Hand History for Game 2499933048 *****
150/300 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14658678) - Mon Aug 08 15:38:47 EDT 2005
Table Table 14514 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: skairzo (1770)
Seat 6: sammbob (401)
Seat 7: sarejn (3594)
Seat 10: GixMage (2235)
sarejn posts small blind (75)
GixMage posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to skairzo [ Jh, Ah ]
skairzo raises (400) to 400
sammbob folds.
sarejn folds.
GixMage calls (250)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ad, Kc, 6d ]
GixMage checks.
skairzo bets (400)
GixMage raises (1835) to 1835
GixMage is all-In.
skairzo?

[lastchance]

I think you gotta lay this down, though I would have pushed after Villain checked to me on the flop.

[Scuba Chuck]

Fold, and be excited about it...

[Shillx]

Fold preflop. Fold AKo too. Tens are the 1st pure +EV push here. Your opponents can actually play in a variety of ways to make AJ (or AK) a bad push. Namely they just call all-in no matter what they hold.

Brad

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Fold AKo too. Tens are the 1st pure +EV push here. Your opponents can actually play in a variety of ways to make AJ (or AK) a bad push. Namely they just call all-in no matter what they hold.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... What?! Fold AKo? Because if your opponents call any 2, it's not profitable?

What kind of morons call any 2 when you fold A9 here, let alone AK?!

[Shillx]

They don't know what you are pushing and folding here. I get beat into the pot in this spot all day long by hands like KQ.

If the SB/BB call 22+/A2+ you can't push AK. So my 1st statement of "fold AKo" is kinda strong, but against people with ???? calling standards it isn't a risk that I'm willing to take. It is impossible for me to say if it is +EV or not since I have no idea what they call with. If you push AK and he calls with QJ, you aren't going to be too happy about it.

Brad

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
They don't know what you are pushing and folding here. I get beat into the pot in this spot all day long by hands like KQ.

If the SB/BB call 22+/A2+ you can't push AK. So my 1st statement of "fold AKo" is kinda strong, but against people with ???? calling standards it isn't a risk that I'm willing to take. It is impossible for me to say if it is +EV or not since I have no idea what they call with. If you push AK and he calls with QJ, you aren't going to be too happy about it.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]
That's definitely true. So, you've got to put a range on these guys.

First of all, Button should be calling a lot of hands here, even though there's a chance you get called and bust out. Getting it in with Button is a good idea generally.

While opponents can call QJ, and will KQ a lot, they're not calling any 2, and you shouldn't assume they're not calling any 2.

I guess a sane range would be 22+, A2+, KT+ or 44+, A7+, KJ+.