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#32
08-08-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: A3s in the BB, what\'s my flop play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also, the backdoor draw is big here. It's increasing your pot equity by about 6%. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] This is not correct. [/ QUOTE ] A bdoor flush counts as 1.5 outs right? So 4x1.5% is 6%...I dunno, I'm not that big of a math guy. How much does it increase your pot equity by? Also, what's the point of saying "This is not correct."...when you can say "That's not right, it's actually...." Now we have to make several points going over the point. Seems to add to the clutter. -SmileyEH 
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#33
08-08-2005, 02:07 AM
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Re: A3s in the BB, what\'s my flop play
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how often will our hero win this pot vs 8 ppl? this flop clearly connects with many hands... there are so many cards that will fall and beat us. i think this is an example of waiting until the turn to make a decision. call the bet. hopefully u can raise the turn when a club or brick falls. without the backdoor i might even fold. (im sure i will get flamed for this post) [/ QUOTE ] Wow, didnt expect to see this. Probably the line I take. Also, without hte BD flush draw Im probably folding in this spot.
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#34
08-08-2005, 02:23 AM
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Re: A3s in the BB, what\'s my flop play
i clicked on the wrong board but the strategy discussions here are really detailed compared to high stakes. kudos to you all.
oh, and i fold this in a heartbeat! with that hand you're looking to flop a big draw or two pair or better, not top pair/no kicker on a super draw heavy board out of position against 7 players. the backdoor draw is worth maybe an out and a half and one of your 3s is a tainted diamond. you likely have to dodge a king and a 10. you might be outkicked right now or against a made straight or two pair (which has a redraw on you even if you hit two pair or pick up a flush draw on the turn, discounting your outs further). so your ace might be in trouble, you have to dodge many draws, and some will have redraws on you. just soooo many bad things about this hand, and so little can go right for you.
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#35
08-08-2005, 02:32 AM
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Re: A3s in the BB, what\'s my flop play
I believe folding is correct here.
A big factor is that you are so badly out of position, and SB has just bet into seven other people on this flop. To me, that shows extreme strength and I would be very surprised if SB had a had that we beat, besides an occasional flush draw. If you just call and the pot is raised behind you you aren't going to be able to fold for one more bet, and you could very likely be forced to make a lot of mistakes down the road. Even if you spike your kicker on the turn you could easily be behind, and it might cost you a lot to find out since you're going to have to try to protect your hand in this huge pot. Versus a smaller field or with a better position (or, of course, if the pot were bigger) I would play this hand, but here I don't think my hand is worth a small bet, so I'm folding.
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#37
08-10-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: A3s in the BB, what\'s my flop play
I fold because I hate my position. This hand is really nothing like my other digest hand.
The problem is reverse implied odds, 9SB pot isn't quite big enough for us to be raising or even calling and waiting. I don't think we're winning this hand very often with two pair or trips, which is whats going to give us value.
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