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#32
04-19-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
[ QUOTE ]
Your kidding right...this is a great tourney semi bluff id make it everytime and the folding equity is enormous. If you are afraid to go to the felt with an OESFD im not sure you are playing the right game. Plz note: there are no "better spots" in ring game play as you simply take an and all EV+ spots...unless you are WAY underrolled. P.S. Lead that flop with 8$ and wait for the reraise....push the magic dragon. [/ QUOTE ] In a tourney I don't have a problem making a move here. You've got a limited time only for getting chips and you might not get a better spot. I'm not used to the idea that waiting for a better spot is wrong in a cash game. If you have +EV you make the play period. I understand the logic, but I'm not confident enough with my game yet to make these plays. I'm working on it. Thanks for the responses, everyone. 
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#33
04-19-2005, 01:09 PM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
This hand brings up an interesting point about implied odds. You said that you felt you had the implied odds to call the $3 preflop, because you stood to win, say $60 (villain doubles you up, plus some dead money). Therefore, you are saying that at least one flop in 20 will be good enough for you to guarantee taking his stack, and on all the rest, you have no risk. Unfortunately, there is risk on almost all the favorable flops -- only 444 and 777 are close enough to risk-free. You have to take into account the reverse implied odds as well as the implied odds -- the chance that you will lose your whole stack, as well.
As it turned out, you got what you considered to be a favorable flop, but was it really? As the cards stood, you were only a 56-to-44 favorite. With the bets as they were, if you played this flop out 100 times, you win an average of $23 per hand. If someone had said to you preflop, as you were considering making the $3 call, "IF you get a favorable flop, you can expect to profit by $20," would you still make the call? Do you really think that you will see a "favorable" flop more often than 1 in 7? (If we give him the Kd as one of his kings, you are only 515 to 485 ahead. If we give him the Ad Kd instead of a big pair, you are way behind on this "favorable" flop.) Even on a much more favorable flop, like J74, you are still only a 3-to-1 favorite, so you should only count half the winnings for the times that you win, in order to compensate for the times you lose. That is, with what is really your best reasonable flop, you only stood to win (on average) $35. And you can't tell that flop from K74, in which you are a 20-to-1 dog against KK. I think that, in order to make the call preflop, you had to be a lot deeper, like 300 BBs rather than 100, or 60 times the amount of the call, rather than 18. Also, you need to know that your opponent will pay off on nearly all the big hands you have, or else you have to have some significant bluff equity, which means he is tight, capable of a laydown, and you have a very tight image. And you have to know which of these two types of players you are up against in order to know the right way to play postflop.
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#34
04-19-2005, 02:02 PM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
Zag-
Thanks for the post. I'm not denying that preflop is marginal, and it *might* be a -EV play. I think most of your post assumes he has KK every time. Against a many players, I have a significant amount of fold equity when they do have big pairs. This guy has PFR 6%, which isn't astronomical, but it does mean he's raising a lot more than big pocket pairs. So when he does have A-face, I'll win this pot 2/3 of the time (when he misses), plus whatever non-zero % of the time he folds, plus 6% edge pot equity edge I have when he does have a big pair, plus the overlay of the preflop money and his follow up bet. While I don't have hard numbers to display, intuition tells me that these factors combine to make this play more +EV than you indicate, as you're only counting the expected value of my hand vs. pair. Yes, there are reverse implied odds involved, and yes this is be a high variance play against a calling station. In a reply to TheWorstPlayer above, he points out the fact that if he's going to call me when I hit anyway, I might as well go into check-call mode postflop. As always I welcome people to set me straight if my logic has holes in it. Thanks, KoW
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#36
04-19-2005, 08:09 PM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would just open-push. That can be a really fun thing to do sometimes. [/ QUOTE ] What on earth does that accomplish? KoW [/ QUOTE ] Lots and lots of people will fold.
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#37
04-19-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would just open-push. That can be a really fun thing to do sometimes. [/ QUOTE ] What on earth does that accomplish? KoW [/ QUOTE ] Lots of people will fold, which you wouldn't mind. And you might get called by a worse hand (like a pair of kings). You'll almost never get called by a hand that has you crushed (a bigger flush draw).
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#38
04-20-2005, 01:53 AM
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Re: 47s big draw, standard?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You want a fold? [/ QUOTE ] No. You are a favorite on the flop. Why would you fold? [/ QUOTE ] I have AA. Opponent has 72o. Pot has 10000. It is 5 more for him to call. Do I want a fold or a call?
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