Turn pairs board, Villain bets weak. Overpair plan?

KowCiller · #1 04-05-2005, 11:49 AM

Villain is Loose/semi aggr preflop (44/4). Postflop I haven't yet seen him do anything too crazy.

All thoughts appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($41.8)
MP3 ($56.8)
Hero ($49.5)
Button ($76.9)
SB ($53.9)
BB ($130.48)
UTG (Villain)/ ($97.15)
UTG+1 ($79.1)
MP1 ($15.46)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG (Villain)/ raises to $3, 4 folds, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, UTG (Villain)/ calls $5.

Flop: ($16.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $12, Villain calls $12.

Turn: ($40.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets $10, Hero calls $10.

River: ($60.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets $30, Hero ???

momo24 · #2 04-05-2005, 02:31 PM

I think you put yourself in a difficult position by just calling on the turn. He knows you could have raised preflop and bet the flop with overcards. His 1/4 pot bet on the turn looks like a probe bet to see where you're at. I'd raise the turn to around $30 and you'll likely take the pot down there or you'll at least have a better idea of what you're facing on the river.

Edit: I just noticed that with your stack size, my recommended raise puts you all-in. (I originally thought you both had around $100.) I don't think that changes my play, I think I push on the turn here.

KowCiller · #3 04-05-2005, 03:02 PM

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Edit: I just noticed that with your stack size, my recommended raise puts you all-in. (I originally thought you both had around $100.) I don't think that changes my play, I think I push on the turn here.

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If I push the turn, what hands are he calling with that I beat?

Or is your suggestion based on protecting myself from the diamond draw?

Thanks for the response.

KoW

momo24 · #4 04-05-2005, 03:31 PM

Because of the texture of the flop, I think there is a lot of hands that he calls your flop bet with. He could have a flush draw, KQ for open-ended straight draw, or possibly a medium pocket pair and he's calling hoping he's still ahead. When the board pairs on the turn, he might think his pocket pair (or Jack) is good and this small bet is giving you an opportunity to throw away AK-AQ. (I'd expect most players in this game, to check-raise in this situation if they actually have trip 10s so his bet actually makes me less likely to think he has a 10)

As for what hands he'll call with that you can beat, I wouldn't look at the raise that way. I'd raise all-in and hope to take the pot down right here, and if not I'm charging him if he calls with one of the many drawing hands he might have. Even if he's behind on the turn, he's certainly going to have outs to catch you, so I'd be happy to see him fold and take down the $40 pot on the turn.

kurto · #5 04-05-2005, 03:55 PM

You're either way ahead or he has a set of jacks.

His PFR is small enough that I would guess he's not likely raising UTG with junk.

The odds that he raised with a hand that has a 10 is pretty small.

His turn bet seems awfully small UNLESS he was fishing for a raise. Which, frankly I think you should have done.

These may both be blocking bets, seeing how small they are.

I say raise the turn, if he pops it, he has a full house (or possibly a 10, but I doubt it.)

KowCiller · #6 04-05-2005, 03:59 PM

momo24, thanks for the response again. I'd like to share my thought process a bit on this hand since I'm unsure of the best course of action.

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As for what hands he'll call with that you can beat, I wouldn't look at the raise that way. I'd raise all-in and hope to take the pot down right here

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The reason I posed this question is because I feel a push on the turn only folds out hands that I beat (and are drawing slim) and I'm less likely to be paid off when ahead.

For instance, on the turn, Villain could have a medium PP, lets say 66-99, 55, AJ, Tx, JJ, QQ, KK, KQ, or diamonds.

When he bets $10 on the turn, my thoughts were that if I push, he's going to easily fold the medium pocket pairs, and likely to fold AJ and KQ.

He'll probably pay me off with QQ and KK.

If he calls my turn push, he's certainly either got me beat or drawing to diamonds (which is ok, as the price wouldn't be correct). The only diamond hands that really make sense for his UTG PF raise would be AK and KQ of diamonds. If he does happen to draw with KQ, he's only got 4 clean outs (an A gives me a boat), so I'm not really worried about that.

So basically in all other instances (as far as I can tell) the only way he's calling my turn push is if he's got 55/JJ (flopped sets), Tx (where I'm crushed) or QQ/KK where I'm crushing him.

By calling the turn, I submit to you that I make more from a hand I crush (or is drawing thin) than I will from pushing the turn and only being called by hands that I beat or are crushing me. If a diamond falls falls, I can easily escape, and if a blank falls, I can either get money out of them with a hand I beat, or lose the same amount (if i pushed the turn) from a hand that crushes me.

What do you all think? Please point me in the right direction if I've gone awry.

KoW

KowCiller · #7 04-05-2005, 04:01 PM

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I say raise the turn, if he pops it, he has a full house (or possibly a 10, but I doubt it.)

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At that point, it's too late and I'm committed. I'd be interested to hear what you think about my second response to momo24.

Thanks,
KoW

kurto · #8 04-05-2005, 04:07 PM

"Villain could have a medium PP, lets say 66-99, 55, AJ, Tx, JJ, QQ, KK, KQ, or diamonds." Do you really think a medium PP is going to bet into you after your preflop reraise and your flop bet?

I think your hand range is too broad (assuming a thinking player)... He would have to have either AA-QQ or a set to bet into you on the turn. I suppose a straight with a flush draw could make a blocking bet...but I have trouble seeing any straight draw raising from UTG.

(Let's face it, there are a lot of bad players who's moves defy explanation... but since your opponent isn't a raising fool, I won't assume his play is nonsense.)

kurto · #9 04-05-2005, 04:22 PM

"At that point, it's too late and I'm committed." When you called his turn bet, by calling you were already putting 60% of your stack in the pot, no?

Let me back up... since he led at you on the turn, when you called, you must have figured he might follow through with a river bet. I would argue that you have to decide (or do something to clarify in your mind) whether you're ahead or behind on the turn. Because calling his bet on the turn is pointless if you're simply going to fold on the river (You're not looking for your hand to improve as you only have 2 outs). If you could assume that he would follow through with a riverbet (one stronger then his turn bet) you were going to be pot committed either way. If this is the case, at least by reraising the turn, you have a chance you could win via inducing a fold and/or because you have the best hand.

Another thing to consider... the villain raised. You reraised the villain. If you aren't being a maniac, then the villain likely has defined your hand. He's got to have a good idea you have a high pocket pair. And yet he bets into you? I say this has set all over it.

KowCiller · #10 04-05-2005, 04:27 PM

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since he led at you on the turn, when you called, you must have figured he might follow through with a river bet. I would argue that you have to decide (or do something to clarify in your mind) whether you're ahead or behind on the turn

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Yes, I felt that I was ahead and the only thing pushing would accomplish would be to fold out a hand I beat that is drawing to 2 outs.

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at least by reraising the turn, you have a chance you could win via inducing a fold and/or because you have the best hand

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You have to admit that there are zero hands that beat me that are folding to my push on the turn.

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Another thing to consider... the villain raised. You reraised the villain. If you aren't being a maniac, then the villain likely has defined your hand. He's got to have a good idea you have a high pocket pair. And yet he bets into you? I say this has set all over it.

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So then you're in favor of a turn fold?