#11
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Re: AA in MP
[ QUOTE ]
awesome. if he's bluffing, i win the pot right away. winning the pot right away if way more EV then enticing a call or inducing a bluff. am i wrong? [/ QUOTE ] if he's bluffing, he is drawing completely dead. you will win the pot. making the pot one bet larger is your only concern. he'll fold if you raise the turn. he *may* bet the river or call your river bet. a similar reasoning applies for keeping both players around when they are drawing slim. its 'kind of' a slowplay, but the potential to pay off when behind is also a deterrent. one line isn't clearly better here. its really opponent dependent. my main concern is that i don't want to have to call down if I'm 3-bet on the turn, but I'm rarely confident enough in a read that I wouldn't want to show this hand down. |
#12
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Re: AA in MP
gotta call that river shillx. that pot is way too big and this villian is simply too sketchy to trust with 15:1 certainty.
its likely a weak T, but could easily be a strong 9 that is unsure how to play but gains confidence each time no overcard comes. |
#13
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Re: AA in MP
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I probably would have called down from the turn on. I see no reason to raise the turn. You either have him drawing to 2 outs or vice versa. Any reasonable player will fold 9x on the turn when you raise them again. This hand is exactly how poor players play trips/boats. They don't 3-bet for some reason and love to stop and go on all streets. Your turn raise doesn't tell him that you have a ten, but it tells him that you have a big hand. When he fires again on the river, he is surely not bluffing into the strength you have shown (and he surely has at least a 10). [/ QUOTE ] this is where i'm at right now: if i call on the turn, the button can call easily and i don't know where i stand. if i raise on the turn and get bet into on the river - i might fold. (which i didn't) ---------------------------- 1)i raise the turn - i can get the button the fold. if the SB 3-bets, i can fold. 2)i call the turn, button calls - i'm not making them pay to improve and don't know where i'm at and it's a 3-way pot. 3)i call on the turn, button folds - still not sure where i'm at on the river. 4)i raise the turn, button folds and SB bets into me on river and 5)i raise the turn, button calls and SB bets into me on the river: you are might be right about folding on the river, even though i was inclined to call on the river, but i still think you should raise the turn. |
#14
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Re: AA in MP
Ehh I guess I'll halfway give you that.. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
But the turn raise is wrong against this villian. I don't think the hero should be in this spot against this villian in the 1st place. I'm still not completly sold on the river call... |
#15
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Re: AA in MP
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if he's bluffing, he is drawing completely dead. you will win the pot. making the pot one bet larger is your only concern. he'll fold if you raise the turn. he *may* bet the river or call your river bet. [/ QUOTE ] ok. it's not: he IS bluffing or has me beat. 1)he could be bluffing, 2)he could have a hand that might improve to beat me, 3)he might already be beating me. i would rather raise against the 1+2 combination and take the pot right away. against the 3rd scenario - i'd like to find out where i'm at. so if i figure he might have any of the above three hands, i'd rather raise to try to take it down or find out if he has me beat. if he 3-bets the turn or bets into me on the river, i can assume he has hand #3 - he probably has me beat and i can fold. if he calls and checks to me on the river - i'll bet. but if i call on the turn - i will give him the chance to beat me if he has hand #2. [ QUOTE ] a similar reasoning applies for keeping both players around when they are drawing slim. its 'kind of' a slowplay, but the potential to pay off when behind is also a deterrent. [/ QUOTE ] if it's 3-way on the river, my chances of winning the pot go down more. both players might have hand #2 and the chance of one of them improving to beat me goes up. |
#16
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Re: AA in MP
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ok. it's not: he IS bluffing or has me beat. [/ QUOTE ] no, i accounted for Tx, 9x, bluffs, gutshots, etc earlier. i didn't need to repeat all of that. i wanted to emphasize the bluff result. that's how you evaluate a decision. weight each possibility and determine each possiblities EV. you said against a bluff you want to take it down immediately. i'm saying he's drawing dead, so let's get one more bet out of him for more value. [ QUOTE ] so if i figure he might have any of the above three hands, i'd rather raise to try to take it down or find out if he has me beat. [/ QUOTE ] so you raised and he bet the river, where do you stand? [ QUOTE ] but if i call on the turn - i will give him the chance to beat me if he has hand #2. [/ QUOTE ] sure, it gives him a chance to beat you.. but he is likely paying more than his share for that chance. if you raise AA preflop, do you want everyone to fold and win the pot? or do you want everyone to call and win less pots, but more $$? |
#17
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Re: AA in MP
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2)he could have a hand that might improve to beat me [/ QUOTE ] Like what? JQ is all you're afraid of, and he doesn't have JQ. Calling down here from the turn bet is probably the most +EV move you can make. Rob |
#18
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Re: AA in MP
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so you raised and he bet the river, where do you stand? [/ QUOTE ] after reading shillx post - i'm behind on the river more often than not. i would fold in the future in the situation. |
#19
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Re: AA in MP
if he 3-bets the turn or bets into me on the river, i can assume he has hand #3 - he probably has me beat and i can fold.
You called the river... This is why I don't understand the turn raise. You said that the villian is a frequent bluffer. Agasint these types of players, you should induce them to bluff more. By raising the turn, you are in effect stopping a river bluff. This is counter-productive against the player you describe. Call the turn. Let him bluff again on the river and throw his money away. Brad |
#20
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Re: AA in MP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] so you raised and he bet the river, where do you stand? [/ QUOTE ] after reading shillx post - i'm behind on the river more often than not. i would fold in the future in the situation. [/ QUOTE ] Did I make a good post/point? Honestly, I feel like no one ever listens to me. I'm starting to think that I'm a lousey poster (as well as being a lousey player [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]). Shill |
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