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  #21  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:06 PM
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

[ QUOTE ]
According to my PT stats, 67% loser, 33% winners....over 100,000 hands. Simply win or lose, doesnt mean there are big winners or big losers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this take into account the winners who multi-table?

In other words, if you consider that after rake is considered, possibly 47% of players win, and 53% lose. OK, so what about when you realize that the winners are likely 4-tabling, and so four winning hands at a time could all be attributed to 1 human. And the even better players play 6, 8, 10 tables at once. This should help clarify that probably 5% of the players out there are really beating the game up, while another 40% or so are barely in the black, and over 50% are losing, some of which are losing tons.

In other words, lets look at it like this: If $100M is wagered, then lets say $5M is automatically lost to rake, leaving $95M to be paid out. Let's say there are 20 players who each earn $1M 1-tabling. 20 players earn $2M 2-tabling, 10 players earn $3.5M 4-tabling.

That means there are 50 winning players.

The losers would probably be about 60 players each losing up to $2M dollars.

In other words out of 110 players, 10 of those are earning over 1/3 of all the money paid out. It's very top-heavy. While the losers are probably all very similar (slight losers).

These numbers are just total shots in the dark of course, but I hope I made the point that the skillful players are playing (and winning at) multiple tables. One skillful player could take down 4 different pots at 4 different tables against 4 different fish. The money won and lost is equal, but only 1 of the 5 players "won". The other 4 lost.
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  #22  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:24 PM
shutupndeal shutupndeal is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

How would we prove it and what would the varaibles be?

Ok then how bout this!
A buck three eighty and change times X divided by the temperature of the water at the tropic of cancer during the winter solstice. <--- Yup, that looks right!
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  #23  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:43 PM
bilyin bilyin is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

This question is impossible to answer because you cannot define the universe of poker players. How about someone who lose and then quit playing? Do you count him? If you treat everyone who has ever played poker as a poker player; then the percentage of winning players is extremely low. I think less than 1%. If you count the poker players who are still playing today (those who do not play anymore not counted), then the percentage of winners is much higher. I would not be surprised if it is over 20%.
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  #24  
Old 12-23-2005, 01:01 AM
Nomad84 Nomad84 is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

I'm not sure what data can be exported from PT to Excel (either directly or via database queries), but it might be possible to get a rough idea of the percentage of winning players if we could export # of hands, win rate (or net winnings), and standard deviation. If necessary, we could approximate SD. We could then determine how confident we are that each player is an overall winner pretty easily. By converting that to a percentage likelyhood that each is a winner and averaging this column, we could get an approximate percentage of overall long term winners, I think. It may be necessary to only include players with some minimum number of hands, since we won't be very confident in any results from players without many hands. By that, I mean that if someone has relatively few hands, we may be only 60% sure that they are winners, even if they have a great win rate. I would expect a disproportionate number of players with relatively few hands in most databases. This would tend to cause our estimate to be too high since even the losers (with few hands) will still be 35% likely to be winners, for example. I'm not sure what the hand cutoff should be though. If we require too many hands, we will exclude players who lose quickly and give up, while including players who go on a sustained rush even though they are long-term losers. I doubt this method could provide a very good estimate, but it may be better than just throwing out educated guesses. I don't have the motivation to actually give it a shot. Besides, my database is relatively small. However, if someone else wanted to try it, it should be a fairly quick process and it would be interesting to see the results.
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  #25  
Old 12-23-2005, 08:38 AM
ianlippert ianlippert is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

[ QUOTE ]
7 or 8%. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey jtr, wasnt it you that made a post in another of these threads that assumed 5-10% winners with certain winrates and SD, and then went on to show that at any given time you are going to get the 60/40 split in your PT database? I wonder if you knew were this post was because it really showed how few players are long term winners.
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  #26  
Old 12-23-2005, 02:47 PM
benfranklin benfranklin is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

[ QUOTE ]
According to my PT stats, 67% loser, 33% winners....over 100,000 hands. Simply win or lose, doesnt mean there are big winners or big losers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that those stats really mean anything. Unless you are playing the same players over and over, most of those winner/loser results are simply the report of how a single player did in a single session.

Those numbers are about what you would expect if 10 people sat down and played for a couple of hours. Given the rake, 3 winners and 7 losers sounds about right for that session.

But that tells us nothing about the long term profit/loss situation for any of those players. The general rule of thumb I've always heard is that a pro expects to lose 1 out of 3 sessions in the long run. PT stats could show 2 or 3 losing sessions for a pro who had a dozen winning sessions over the same period that weren't in that sample.
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  #27  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:29 PM
roueful roueful is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

It shouldn't matter if you have consistent stats on individual players, the 'sessions' will average out.

I'd predict most of those 33% most are very marginal winners, while the losers vary from small to huge. The rake eats up a sizable portion of any profits.
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  #28  
Old 12-24-2005, 11:04 AM
jtr jtr is offline
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Default Re: What percentage of players \"consistently\" win?

Hi, Ian.

Yes that was me. The previous thread can be found here. There's a long discussion of why the figure of around 40% winners (that so many people quote from their PT database) is likely to mislead. Some simple simulations show that everybody's PT numbers are perfectly compatible with the hypothesis that 8% or 10% of people have +EV.

Cheers,
--JTR.
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