Turn/river play with KK

[axioma]

ahh yes, i did not see the FD, my mistake. the suggestion to C/F the river UI is more understandable now heh.

however my point remains the same: i am not folding this to an unknown for 1 more bet on the river getting 10.5-1.

[istewart]

Just based on the general nature of how unknowns play (at these stakes). So it's an assumption, but not necessarily an incorrect one.

I realize that check/calling the way down lets him bet better hands and check worse ones, but I still think if he peels the flop and raises the turn I'm toast too often to call the river.

[axioma]

since we have now established we are getting to the river, surely general experiance and common sense tells us we are good here against a random guy > 10% of the time.

[kidcolin]

Axioma,

I agree a showdown is in order. What are your thoughts on betting the turn vs. checking the turn?

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
Axioma,

I agree a showdown is in order. What are your thoughts on betting the turn vs. checking the turn?

[/ QUOTE ] There is tons of value in betting here. So many worse hands call here, but yet not as many worse hands will villian bet with after you check.

[kidcolin]

I agree, just curious on Axioma's thoughts.

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
ahh yes, i did not see the FD, my mistake. the suggestion to C/F the river UI is more understandable now heh.

however my point remains the same: i am not folding this to an unknown for 1 more bet on the river getting 10.5-1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Understood, you're probably right. How about this line
bet turn, call if raised and then call one more on river UI. Reasoning, pot is large you are good here enough times and villian will often pull a semibluff turn raise with QQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] JJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] etc.

OTOH, if you bet the turn, he calls, you bet the river after missing your [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw and he raises can you advocate a fold? I think a bluff raise is significantly less likely on the river than a semibluff raise on the turn.

[kidcolin]

Not on a drawy board it isn't. It's less likely, but it's still going to happen. I'd call the raise. I'd consider folding if it were a J or Q, like I mentioned above.

[axioma]

first, we have to bet this turn for sure, its just a very basic value bet, for reasons mentioned above.

if we are raised, in this particular case we have an easy call.

so we now find ourselves at the river with a pair of K's on an A high board agaisnt a single opponent who 3 bet PF, and raised the A high board on the turn. not a particularly nice situation to be in at all.

if our opponent bets when we check to him, we will be getting 10.5-1 on a call, which i personally think is *just* good enough to warrant a call, given that we have no info on the opponent. this is not based on any particular mathmatical anylysis (which you cant really do anyway against an unknown) so i could be off, but in my experiance we are shown some random hand we beat enough times to make calling profitable.

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if the opp. just calls the turn, again i think we have to value bet the river. a raise here is cetainly more scary than a turn raise, but i just dont see how i could fold without some kind of decent read on the guy. either way it has to be *very* close id say.

the descision to call or fold the river if raised is the only one of the bunch that is really difficult i reckon. calling would not be terrible, folding would not be terrible. again, since we dont know the opponent, i tend towards calling when it is otherwise so close.

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i havent really mentioned the suited nature of the board yet. yes, the guy could have made a flush on the turn, and equally he could be semi-bluff/ free showdowning a PP with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which in a way act almost to cancel each other out.

either way, i just dont think it swings things enough to impact on any of the individual descisions we might have to make.