What is my opponent thinking here?

[soah]

This is concerning the bad LAG I mentioned in the previous thread that I posted.

I joined a full six-max table with him, it went down to three-handed for a while, and eventually filled up again. The hand in question occured after it got full again, so we were getting to know each other pretty well by then.

One of the things that made this guy bad was that he varied his bets based on the strength of his hand.... A LOT. And it didn't seem to occur to him that he was being exploited.

This guy would minraise a lot preflop... sometimes he'd make a real raise (not often though). On the flop he'd minbet a lot, and sometimes he'd make real bets. (After making a "real" raise preflop it seemed he always made a "real" bet on the flop). One time he made a larger reraise preflop and followed it up with a real flop bet, and after getting called in two spots on the flop, he went ahead and bet $242 on the turn when a third diamond hit. I mucked TPTK (no diamond) when he did that...

After making a minbet postflop, he'd always fold to a raise. It was awesome. I tried to be subtle about exploiting it. If he had minraised preflop and I had been the only caller in the BB, I'd sometimes just fold to his minbet on the flop when I had nothing... I mean, I can't raise him EVERY time without him catching on, so here and there I have to give up some pots to him, and it might as well be the small ones. Why get frisky over a $16 pot when he's letting me steal the $40 pots?

When it was three-handed he was min-reraising nearly all of my button raises it felt like. He took down more than half of those pots, but I did re-steal a few when he made the stupid flop bets. A fourth player joined the table and I had 88 UTG. I raised to $14, he raised to $24, blinds folded, I made it $66 and he called, flop came A64 and I bet $100, he took a long time and folded. Shortly after that he raised to $8, others folded, I raised to $26 from the BB with AKo, flop was KQx and I bet $40, he called. Turn was X and I checked, he bet $45, I raised to $90, he called. River was X and I checked, he checked behind with a worse king.

After those two hands he stopped playing back at me so much, but two more players joined soon thereafter and I shifted down to six-handed gear.

So finally we arrive at "the hand" where it happens. He minraises to $8 UTG, two folds, I call on the button with 22, blinds fold. Flop is KQ2 rainbow. He bets $4. I figure he has nothing again but I can't slowplay... it's somewhat likely that his "nothing" is a pocket pair and it could also be something involving a straight draw, and he WILL NOT bluff more than $4 more at a time if I just call him. So slowplaying can only improve him to a winner, and not something that can double me up. So I raise to $20.... and he calls. This is the first time that he has called a raise after making a minbet during this entire session.

What does he have? Has he caught on to me, and if so, is he really sandbagging me, or just calling with a marginal hand to see if I fire again on the turn? Or is he still oblivious to my thievery and he just wants to peel a card with ATo?

[TheWorstPlayer]

He has a draw. And your min c/r on the turn in that other hand made baby jesus cry. And not value betting the river after he just called the c/r made baby jesus cry for hours.

[ericlambi]

From your description, it doesn't seem likely he has KK/QQ/AA/AK because of his min-bet pre-flop. KQ or KJ seems reasonable, although he'd probably be more aggressive with the former. Maybe QJ/JT/KT. Obviously he doesn't have air. AT doesn't seem likely unless he's getting desparate to try and stack you.

You aren't worried you're behind are you? I would worry about an A or a 9 that could possibly help an OESD.

[elus2]

his range is any two of (A,J,T,9), smaller pocket pairs, etc, etc. it really doesn't matter since, a) he is LAG, b) you have the third nuts and c) he seems willing to call down. so, we should keep betting.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
He has a draw. And your min c/r on the turn in that other hand made baby jesus cry. And not value betting the river after he just called the c/r made baby jesus cry for hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expected that hand wouldn't be received too well. I decided that my goal on that hand was simply to confuse the hell out of him and teach him that firing at the pot nonstop may have unwelcome consequences. It had the desired effect, and I took down a fairly big pot in the process.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK fine. For the turn. How do you explain the river? That is an easy easy value bet. No?

[soah]

I didn't know what he had and therefore had no idea how much he would call on the river. Getting him to fold the worst hand has no value, and it also reinforces the idea in his mind that I am playing straightforward and he can just keep stealing from me whenever I don't show strength.

I felt like my line for that hand would effectively convery the message "I think you are so full of [censored] that I'm going to let you bet for me even right after I've checkraised."

[soah]

So anyway...

He calls my raise on the flop, and I make quads on the turn. He checks. What's my move?

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
So anyway...

He calls my raise on the flop, and I make quads on the turn. He checks. What's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

minbet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]