Poll: Facing a Check-Raise

[pzhon]

Here is a follow-up question:

Do you think it is profitable to check-raise you on this A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flop with

a) Any two?
b) A straight draw?
c) TPTK?

By profitable, I mean compared with whatever the best option is among bet, check/call, or check/fold.

[DoomSlice]

It depends.... depends on just about everything.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends.... depends on just about everything.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a cop out. You can say that in response to almost every question. That might prevent you from fixing leaks in your own game, and identifying leaks in others' games.

Do SSNL regulars pay off too much when check-raised? Are they highly vulnerable to bluff check-raises on ace-high flops? Semi-bluff check-raises?

[pzhon]

Here is some anaylsis:

The consensus is to call or reraise with TPTK or better or the nut flush draw. About half of the people responding would fold AQ. About 2/3 would fold the second nut flush draw.

Let's suppose you are in the big blind, and someone open-raises in middle position with AJ-AK, KQ, and 99-AA. After the A97 flop, there are 30 pocket pair possibilities, 36 Ax hands, and 16 KQ hands. Some of the KQ hands would not bet the flop, but most people indicated that they would bet on the flop with KQ or TT.

If you check-raise, you are risking 25 BB to win 16.5 BB. How frequently will you be rewarded with a fold?

AA: 0/3 hands will fold.
KK: roughly 5.5/6 will fold.
QQ: 5.5/6 will fold.
JJ: 5/5 will fold. Some would not bet the flop.
TT: 5/5 will fold.
99: 0/3 will fold.

AK: 2/12 will fold
AQ: 6/12 will fold
AJ: 10/12 will fold.

KQ: 9/10 will fold.

The total is that about 48/74 hands would fold after that sequence, 64%. That's greater than the 60% needed to fold to justify check-raising as a complete bluff.

That doesn't mean people are bluffing enough in practice to make it worth a call. Nor does it mean a random opponent will fold as much, or will bet so many hands that they are willing to fold to a check-raise. It is something to think about, as it shows an exploitable weakness. It suggests a semi-bluff would be quite profitable.

[Ghazban]

Your analysis is excellent, but it doesn't accurately model the small stakes NL world. You're only polling 2+2ers who, as a rule, I would expect to think more deeply about the game than the average donk at a SS table. If you changed the poll to read "At a table full of 2+2ers...", the responses might be different. Alternatively, the percentage of time a respondee does the answer they select may change.

For example, I would probably fold KK almost 100% of the time against unimaginative, standard SS players, but would only fold it 60% of the time against tricky, thinking players. In both cases, my poll response would be the same but the correct percentage of the time I can be bluff checkraised is different.

Great post, though; the method and thought process involved in your analysis is far more important than the results gleaned from this data set.

[DoomSlice]

Well, it is a cop out, but there are just so many things to take into account when you're doing this, like whether your opponent seems to like to bluff. If I'm against someone who wins 50% of seen flops but has only shown down 4/40 hands, I'm going to open up my range against him and call or raise with much less than bottom pair. If I'm against someone who hardly ever makes it to showdown, I'm folding just about everything but the nuts or a monster draw.

It is hard to classify a single "SSNL player", since there are so many styles out there. I'll see people who will check-raise with any piece of the board, and I'll see people who will never dream of check-raising.

And as to your post down yonder, yup, semi-bluffing is profitable, but I'm sure you knew that.