An odd hand... JTc UTG

[elindauer]

I limp JTc UTG. Short stack limps behind with 2 BB left. Button limps, SB completes. BB raises, all call but the SB.

4 to the flop for 9 SB: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jackpot.

BB bets. I call. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] short stack raises, he has $20 left. BB 3-bets. I call again. shortstack moves in for his last $20, which does not reopen the betting. We both call.

3 players, 1 all-in, for 9.5 BB: [A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets. I call again. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (blank)

BB bets. I call again. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


Any thoughts on my play this hand?

thanks,
Eric

I'll just get right to the meat of this issue. Should you raise the turn? call the turn? or fold the turn?
I would call down as you did and expect to lose and heres why. Basically the only hands you are ahead of are hands that the BB could possibly overplayed on that flop. Hands like: KdQd,KsQs,AdJd,AhJh,AdTd,AhTh.

The hands that make more sense given the BB's flop play are AA,KK,QQ,AK,AQ and you have zero to 1 out against all these hands on the turn. Even if you assumed that the BB would play all the overplayed hands the same as the logical hands you are still a 13-6 underdog. All you have here is a crying call on the turn and river. Your one glimmer of hope is that the BB was overplaying his hand cuz he knew he probably had the all-in guy beat. This is a decent possibilty, but it doesnt change your call down strategy to a raise situation, all it does is give you a chance, the odds are still against you. But the pot is large enough to call down.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically the only hands you are ahead of are hands that the BB could possibly overplayed on that flop. Hands like: KdQd,KsQs,AdJd,AhJh,AdTd,AhTh.

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I agree that these are reasonable hands for him to hold so folding is probably wrong. Since he might hold AJ or AT, raising and folding to a 3-bet is also painful, as there is some risk that my flop slowplay / turn raise convinces him that I simply have a weak ace...

I'd just mention that I don't think these hands are "overplayed" by the BB on the flop. Facing a caller on a draw-heavy board and a short-stack trying to get all-in, TPGK and 2-pair look like the nuts to me.

-Eric

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basically the only hands you are ahead of are hands that the BB could possibly overplayed on that flop. Hands like: KdQd,KsQs,AdJd,AhJh,AdTd,AhTh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that these are reasonable hands for him to hold so folding is probably wrong. Since he might hold AJ or AT, raising and folding to a 3-bet is also painful, as there is some risk that my flop slowplay / turn raise convinces him that I simply have a weak ace...

I'd just mention that I don't think these hands are "overplayed" by the BB on the flop. Facing a caller on a draw-heavy board and a short-stack trying to get all-in, TPGK and 2-pair look like the nuts to me.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right that I may be a bit too strict here when I use the word overplay. But in general, if I had a hand like KQ,AJ or AT on that board and I bet and someone raised me on the flop, I would not reraise. I dont like the idea of splashing this pot with more money when there are several turn cards that can potentially kill my hand. Like If I had KdQd on that board, any Ace,Jack,Ten,club severly damage my hand. If im counting right thats 17 cards that the hero has to dodge twice. This is one of those situations where even if the hero has the best hand on the flop he can easily be an underdog to have the best hand by the river, and if the hero is actually trailing on the flop then he could be drawing very thin. In this situation I would almost always just call the flop raise, and if the turn is a blank then I would resume an aggressive stance, becuz now the hero's hand is much stronger, since if the hero is in the lead his opponent will only have one card left to out draw him, and as we all know even an open ended straight flush draw is a mediocre hand on the turn. So becuz the heros equity stands to change significantly with the turn card if he holds a KQ,AT,AJ type hand on that board, I think its best if the hero doesnt bombard the flop with raises. If he bets and he meets resistence, he should just call and wait for a turn blank to become aggressive again since at this point he will have a much stronger hand.

So did the villain overplay his hand if he had KQ,AJ,AT? Maybe not, maybe I was being too harsh. But did he play his hand in a suboptimal way by 3 betting the flop? IMO, yes.

[W. Deranged]

1. I think the fact that shortstack is almost certainly going to commit his entire stack regardless of what you do and his all-in does not reopen the betting means that once the betting gets back around to you the second time you really need to cap it there. You're justing missing too much value if you don't.

I personally think it's better to just raise immediately. Anyone who likes that flop at all probably likes it quite a bit. You'll get called by pair+gutshot type hands. The hands that don't like the flop really hate it (hands like 88) and they aren't calling one bet so there's no concern folding them out right there. The short stack guy is going to put it all in if he has any kind of piece here anyway. The board likely hit the BB hard if at all and you really want to see this hand get three-bet and capped on the flop. (Allowing just one bet to go in on the flop if BB has AK, AQ, AA, KK, or QQ is losing ungodly amounts of value).

2. That turn sucks SO MUCH. Oh dear god it bites. I honestly don't like raising at this point. A BB raise is almost like a three-bet for a lot of players (I've seen one article advocate only raising out of the BB with AA and KK, for example). If you raise and get three-bet, it sucks because you should probably fold as you're drawing dead so much of the time but that's painful to do and you do have outs against hands like AJ or whatever and have that ever lovely Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] possibility. A lot of the hands you're beating at this point aren't paying off a raise anyway as that A looks as awful to them as it does to you.

3. The river is basically just an extension of the turn reasoning as the river changes nothing.

[elindauer]

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You're justing missing too much value if you don't.

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Hi Deranged,

You talk a lot about all the missed value from the slowplay, but don't really defend these statements much. After all, if this is an action flop that players behind may well like a lot, and if the short stack is likely to try to get all-in with any piece, then a call leaves me with a fair chance of getting caught in the middle of a raising war, which is ideal since it allows me to conceal my strength while getting a great a better read on exactly what everyone holds. It also gives hands with no chance to beat me like Ax, Kxs, Qxs, any J or any T the opportunity to hang around and draw to what looks like ok odds but which in reality are drawing almost dead. A bare J, for example, is drawing to 3 outs for 1/2 the pot facing a flush redraw...

More importantly, playing it slower may allow me to get in a turn (or river) raise, instead of forcing everyone into check-call mode. If the BB has a big hand, he may 3-bet allowing me to cap the turn, etc. The lost bets on the flop are often recovered, with interest, on the turn.

In particular, I'm curious if you still believe that not capping the flop is a mistake. I'm sacrificing less than 1 SB in opponent donations while continuing to lie low and leaving my opponent with the initiative, which as we know encourages him to continue firing on the turn. As the turn card was being dealt, I was already licking my chops at the prospect of raising the turn, wondering whether or not I'd get the opportunity to cap it... oops.


-Eric

[W. Deranged]

E--

Good comments.

You are right that I am very much of the "value tends to be maximized in multi-way pots by raising immediately" school of thought.

In general my reasoning comes from the fact that you are rarely going to get two-bet cold-calls on the big bet streets, and that on action boards the turn card is generally more likely to kill your action than actually to generate increased action. Basically, there are plenty of situations where opponents willing to put in two bets on the flop or even more when there opportunities are still open become unwilling to put in anything on the turn if the turn is scary. Those opponents who are likely to get excited about the turn card and give you ample action there usually have holdings with strong potential on the flop (flush and striaght draws, good pairs, etc...) and so are going to pay to realize that potential anyway.

Think of it this way. A player with a hand like A9 (maybe with a club), QJ (maybe with a club), and so forth will often pay two bets if you raise on the flop as the pot is big and they rate to have a pretty good hand. They think you could just have a draw and don't want to go anywhere. Those sorts of hands, though, are rarely calling on the turn if you raise there and face them with two cold and they haven't improved on the turn.


The general theory comes from a couple of the following general premises:

1. The more cards that appear on the board, the fewer the number of players who are willing to put in money. The flop is the point where your opponents' hands are least well defined, everyone's equity tends to be closer to average, and everyone psychologically is more excited about their chance of winning the pot.

2. 2 sb is a much less formidable price than 2 bb for anyone.

3. Opponents are much more likely to think your moves on the flop are with weak hands than they are to think the same on the turn.

4. Unless you have fantastic relative position, slowplays tend to work by extracting large prices from a small number of opponents. Flop raises extract smaller prices from a larger number of opponents. When you have many possible customers, the latter is often more valuable.



Just some thoughts. I do think raising here is better. I think the value of information on the flop is not really important, because you have the nuts, are blocking the obvious flush redraws, etc... On the flop, you should be interested in value and not in letting your opponents define their hands.

Also, the fact of "tipping your hand" is one I think you actually have backwards. A flop raise is much more likely to be thought to be smoke-and-mirrors than a turn raise is. A flop raise is very often going to get three-bet, and you can gain value while letting your opponent keep the initiative. (I realize that this may be an argument to not capping the flop, which I'm a bit more open to than not raising the first time).



Anyway, thanks for encouraging me to explain a viewpoint that even I feel sometimes gets a bit too dogmatic.

[elindauer]

Hi Deranged,

Great post. I like your arguments and see merit in all of them. I can see that all of your arguments - players calling 2 cold on the flop more easily, players getting less excited as the hand goes on, a turn raise getting more respect then a flop raise, etc have merit. I think I'm still unsure that the size of these effects outweighs the ones that suggest waiting, especially in this hand.

I generally play fast on the flop and agree that this is often the best way to go, and may be in this case too. I'm not quite convinced, but I'll think about it more. I'm fairly sure that raising cannot be far behind if it is behind at all.

thanks,
Eric

[goofball]

Raise from the start and don't stop raisng the flop. You do have the nuts right?

Also, don't fold, god, if there were any spot to fold the nut straight thsi owuld be it, god that sucks, but don't fold. He could have AJs or JTs or some werid hand because he's weird and you don't know it. Riasing is spewing, folding is bleh.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise from the start and don't stop raisng the flop. You do have the nuts right?

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Yeah, ok. You have the nuts, so raise. This is pretty simple logic and I admit it's often correct. Are you sure it's correct here though?

My thinking is this:

- I can't fold anyone that I might want to fold, with the remotely possible exception of Qcx
- Anyone who folds I prefer to have call for 1 SB
- Players make a lot more dumb calls for 1 SB then they do for 2
- This is an action flop that may be raised behind me, especially with a short-stack in the game
- anyone willing to call 2 on the flop may well be willing to call 2 cold on the turn.


Still like a raise? I'm not convinced my play was the best, that's why I posted it. I am convinced that a slowplay has merit with the nut made hand + near nut draw on a flop that may be raised behind me...

-Eric