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#11
12-15-2005, 11:03 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. 
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#12
12-15-2005, 11:04 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.
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#13
12-15-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing. [/ QUOTE ] Meaningless stat. They don't score.
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#14
12-15-2005, 11:19 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing. [/ QUOTE ] Meaningless stat. They don't score. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, they don't give up points either! lol Where is this whole argument going....basically what you're saying is the Bears will have their usual flat offensive game (14-17 per game, even though they're facing a sub-par defense, and at home) but the Falcons are going to score enough on the Bears to lose by 3 or win. I really don't see this at all and think you're underestimating the Bear defense.
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#15
12-15-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing. [/ QUOTE ] Meaningless stat. They don't score. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, they don't give up points either! lol Where is this whole argument going....basically what you're saying is the Bears will have their usual flat offensive game (14-17 per game, even though they're facing a sub-par defense, and at home) but the Falcons are going to score enough on the Bears to lose by 3 or win. I really don't see this at all and think you're underestimating the Bear defense. [/ QUOTE ] Sorta...Really, based on the matchups as I see them, I think there is a good probability that Atlanta will score more than average against the Bears and there is a good probability that the Bears will score less than average against the Falcons. In general, the Bears defense, as evidenced by the the Pittsburgh game and as further supported by the fact that they've lost both starting safeties, is VASTLY overrated. Take a look at the teams they've dominated over the last 9 or 10 weeks. Other than Tampa or arguably Carolina, none of these teams are (or were at the time) a threat offensively. With a few exceptions (Carolina), Atlanta has shown that they can score. But for Atlanta's injuries, Atlanta would be considered a vastly superior team to the Bears. The fact is that Atlanta's injuries won't be much of a factor because Chicago doesn't have the talent offensively to exploit it.
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#16
12-15-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
It's true the Bears have played a cake schedule, 27th overall according to the Sagarin's. But Atlanta's played the 30th toughest schedule so please man, look at both sides evenly. I haven't accused you of this before but there's far too much homer in the pick this time around.
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#17
12-15-2005, 12:25 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
Part of the line comes from the fact that Atlanta has had one less day to prepare than Chicago.
I think everyone hears what you're saying about Chicago's poor offense and they agree. But they've still gotten 9 wins, they're 6-1 at home, they're #1 in defense and #7 in rushing offense. Personally, I think the line is exactly where it should be.
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#18
12-15-2005, 12:43 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
It's true the Bears have played a cake schedule, 27th overall according to the Sagarin's. But Atlanta's played the 30th toughest schedule so please man, look at both sides evenly. I haven't accused you of this before but there's far too much homer in the pick this time around. [/ QUOTE ] Homer yes; affecting my choice, absolutely not. 30th, 27th...etc it doesn't matter. Matchups, injuries and confidence-factors, team morale are what matters. Assess those things correctly, you'll be right more often than not. All of those things favor the Falcons in my view. I didn't say that about GB, Tampa, Carolina or (wrongly) New Orleans. I say that now. I would not too surprised (although I'm not predicting) to see a BIG win (something like 27-7) by the Falcons. I would be surprised to see Chicago win by any number greater than 7. What this comes down to is value, and I see it here at +3 +117 or +3.5 -110. As a side note, Atlanta is 4-0 in prime time games this year. 3 Monday nights and 1 Thanksgiving Thursday. There is value in that -- not by the stat itself -- but in the reasons for the stat.
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#19
12-15-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
My point is if you think the Bears' D hasn't proved much against weak opponents, the Falcons' D and O hasn't proved much either against a similarly cake schedule.
Philly at home, the Jets at home, at Detroit and New Orleans at home....4-0 isn't a trend, it's a leap of faith. edit: but hey what's new, we go back and forth on Atlanta all the time. Bears 10-6.
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#20
12-15-2005, 01:02 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
My point is if you think the Bears' D hasn't proved much against weak opponents, the Falcons' D and O hasn't proved much either against a similarly cake schedule. Philly at home, the Jets at home, at Detroit and New Orleans at home....4-0 isn't a trend, it's a leap of faith. edit: but hey what's new, we go back and forth on Atlanta all the time. Bears 10-6. [/ QUOTE ] Good point about the quality of opposition in prime time. I think you'll be able to add the Bears to the list as one of those weak teams and that will be known by the end of the year (after they don't win their division).
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