Interesting bubble spot

[ilya]

Couple hands ago the current huge stack busted a button open-pusher with 66 and almost busted SB's AKs overcall in the process. None of these players seem remarkably loose or remarkably tight. There are 6 hands left in the blind level.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

BB (t1075)
Hero (t625)
Button (t5780)
SB (t520)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].


P.S. If you fold, what do you do if you have 599 chips instead of 625?

[1C5]

I push this EVERY time but I am in the middle of a 30 buy in downswing so I am not sure if you should listen to me. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[embersonfire]

I'd push everytime

[1C5]

PS< why is this interesting? This looks straightforward to me.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
PS< why is this interesting? This looks straightforward to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a close decision.

[1C5]

Why?
A6 with 3 left behind you means there is only a 30% chance you are going to get called by a hand that is ahead of you.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?
A6 with 3 left behind you means there is only a 30% chance you are going to get called by a hand that is ahead of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big stack is calling here without question, given the read on him. I think the OP is trying to decide whether it is better to try and make the SB get blinded out first, or take his chances here.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?
A6 with 3 left behind you means there is only a 30% chance you are going to get called by a hand that is ahead of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that I mostly don't want to be called here even by a worse hand. There are two short stacks and if the shorter of them doubles up on this hand it will be at the taller one's expense, thus keeping them both very short. If the SB pushes next hand, BB is almost certain to call. If SB folds, I can outfold him because the blinds are not going up for another 6 hands. Is SB pushes and wins, BB will have to go all-in with any 2 cards against my BB on the next hand. Also the big stack is Ginormous, and as such his calling standards may have loosened quite a lot. I have not had time to establish whether this is the case because up until two hands ago he was a medium stack. However...IF his calling standards have indeed become very liberal, I am probably better off trying to outlast one of the other shorties.
Oh and finally, I don't have much folding equity as BB is under a lot of presssure to call my push if it's folded to him. If he folds, suddenly he's the 2nd shortest stack.

[1C5]

I don't think it is a given big stack will call.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why?
A6 with 3 left behind you means there is only a 30% chance you are going to get called by a hand that is ahead of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there are two short stacks and if the shorter of them doubles up on this hand it will be at the taller one's expense, thus keeping them both very short. If the SB pushes next hand, BB is almost certain to call. If SB folds, I can outfold him because the blinds are not going up for another 6 hands. Is SB pushes and wins, BB will have to go all-in with any 2 cards against my BB on the next hand. Also the big stack is Ginormous, and as such his calling standards may have loosened quite a lot. I have not had time to establish whether this is the case because up until two hands ago he was a medium stack. However...IF his calling standards have indeed become very liberal, I am probably better off trying to outlast one of the other shorties.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the explaination. Makes sense.

But, me, I HATE being in this position having to outlast other stacks that are close to my size on the bubble.

If I don't get cards, I will fold and try to outlast them but if I get a decent hand like A6o, I push.