#1
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Analysis and hand reading exercise
Villain is 51/0/.5 through about 5 orbits or so. He is getting short-stacked, and may be getting ready to leave.
Put us on hands here: Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ?, ?. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls. Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls. Turn: (3.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls. River: (5.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls $0.90 (All-In). Final Pot: 14.65 BB |
#2
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
You: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Him: X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / some funky two-pair / an Ace that he's stacking off with |
#3
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
Hero: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG: X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], could be any because he's shortstacked and decided to take his final shot with any suited, probably not T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or he might have raised flop with the OESFD. |
#4
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
Hero: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain: I'm guessing Aces and 3's/6's. Random guess... A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
I hold K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
My play is obviously transparent. How's my line? Villain's hand to come . . . |
#6
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
Was he trying to slowplay AA?
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#7
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
[ QUOTE ]
Was he trying to slowplay AA? [/ QUOTE ] And we have a winner. |
#8
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
I don't think I would have bet the turn. Here is my reasoning why you did (and I should in the future). Please let me know if this is correct.
You probably do not have the best hand if you don't improve on the river. I assume your K and Q outs are clean. I count 6 (KQ) + 9 (spades) for a total of 15 outs. 46 cards to come, you are getting 15:31 and you need 1:1 for this turn bet to be a value bet, is that correct so far? There are several reasons for this bet then. 1) opponent could fold, and you win the pot 2) opponent puts you on a made hand and won't recognize what you have if one of your draws come in 3) that's all I can think of right now EDIT: for clarity and bad math |
#9
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
as a hand reading exercise, this offers us nothing.
from your description, villain could literally have anything. therefore, you could have virtually anything. if you want analysis on raising/capping the river, we have to know your hand. this is just silly. |
#10
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Re: Analysis and hand reading exercise
[ QUOTE ]
There are several reasons for this bet then. 1) opponent could fold, and you win the pot [/ QUOTE ] I am semi-bluffing here. Checking behind on the turn is a viable option. UTG is running bad, and the limp up front is ugly. My draw is strong, discounting the K & Q outs to 1.5 each, I'm drawing to 12 outs with possibly the best hand. When he calls the turn bet, I figure he's got a peice. Against an opponent who is "stacking off", I'd probably check behind on the river UI, as bluffing at the pot would normally prove fruitless. You have a good feeling he'll call you down if he's got <1 BB left. |
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