So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...

Monty Cantsin · #1 08-21-2005, 12:40 AM

Both villains are mostly unknown. Neither has done anything particularly noteworthy over the 10 or 15 hands I've seen.

A few hands earlier (or was it last hand?) BB 3-bet me out of the SB with 77, so we know she's capable of pre-flop aggression.

They're both shortstacked, so we know they're not that good.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

I will often cap here. At the moment, I wasn't so confident in my folding equity and I decided to see the flop for 3 bets instead.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets...

I think I probably should have raised this initial bet. But again, I had recently made a move against BB that had been snapped off (with the aforementioned 77) and I was pretty sure I needed to make a hand to win this and figured I might as well see what developed. Ok, I admit it, I was feeling greedy too.

...Hero calls, CO raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, BB calls, Hero calls.

Ok, now I figure there's some chance I might be up against a flopped flush and 3 Queens. I really hope the river doesn't pair after I turn a diamond!

Turn: (10.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets...

Both players are now down to their last bets. Well, you can't bluff someone who's all in...

...Hero calls, CO calls $2 (All-In).

I really hope the diamond I'm about to river isn't the 6...

River: (12.90 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets $0.15 (All-In) and Hero makes a crying call using this:

Final Pot: 12.93 BB

I'm not crazy about how I played the rest of this hand, but I'm pretty sure this call is seriously +EV. Can you guess the surprise ending?

/mc

Danenania · #2 08-21-2005, 01:14 AM

I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff. Nice river call.

bdmcgraw · #3 08-21-2005, 01:17 AM

fold the river, I don't think you are good here often enough. You need to be winning 0.1% of the time for this call to be +EV

Monty Cantsin · #4 08-21-2005, 01:29 AM

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I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I went tharn.

/mc

Alobar · #5 08-21-2005, 01:36 AM

you dont cap PF for folding equity, you do it for value

cdxx · #6 08-21-2005, 02:32 AM

my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close. (joke might as well call)

raising the turn all-in is +EV.

Monty Cantsin · #7 08-21-2005, 03:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[ QUOTE ]
raising the turn all-in is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?

/mc

oreogod · #8 08-21-2005, 03:59 AM

what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?

cdxx · #9 08-21-2005, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[/ QUOTE ]

technically speaking, it doesn't mean that it happens as often as 1/860 of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] good job dragging it though.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?

[/ QUOTE ]

you are still drawing to the nuts, and you are asked to put in 1.015 BB. if calling is +EV, then raising is as well.

Monty Cantsin · #10 08-21-2005, 04:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, no. But at 860:1 I would have called with Jack high (Jack high!)... and won.

/mc