one i didn't like....

[DcifrThs]

i have KJo in the sb and theres a 39/21 (no AF at this point...its not in gametime for me on UB) and he open limps...an over agro fish raises his button i call bb calls (bb is 100/0 over 2 hands). so 4 to the flop for 8 sbs.

flop is Jc9dXx. i check planning on isocheckraising the fish. the bb bets limper calls, button calls and i figure, hmmm, i can call and donk bet or c'r now...i decide to go with the latter and c'r the field of them on this flop.

bb folds the other 2 call. 3 to the turn for 15sbs (7.5bbs)

turn is an 8c. i bet now the 39/21 raises button folds and i call.

river is a Qd and i check and call.

how did i do? what would you do different, why?

-Barron

[anatta]

Flop play is fine, clearly a checkraise, but since foiled, you likely have the best hand and can trap everyone, this is too good to pass up for a wait and see approach (there is no flush draw, you have an overcard, so not that threatening of a board).

Since there is no flush draw on the flop, when you check-raise the field it looks like a strong made hand. Now QT gets there and you are raised on the turn, by a player who looks like he was drawing or slowplaying on the flop. Note the turn raise was made with the button still in. Calling down you will pay 2 BB to win 10.5. So you have to be good here a little over 5:1 (about 18%) or so, ignoring your improvement over two pair and his improvement on a semibluff.

This is where it comes down to playing the player. I think you are beat here and should fold the turn against a lot of opponents.

[mach3]

I probably check fold the river. That Q is ugly and completes most hands that beat you, assuming you were ahead.

[MrStretchie]

I would really Really like to see his postflop aggression. But given his preflop numbers, I don't think you can give him a lot of credit. He may have picked up a flush or straight draw on the turn, may have 2 pair, or may just be getting frisky. The queen is scary, but you've got to call this guy getting 1:12.5. With those numbers he's probably calling the flop with any pair, and could have 1 pair or a busted flush draw at this point at least one time in 13.

I don't think I'd do it, but the only thing I'm wondering is whether you should 3-bet the turn. Is it more likely this player is semi-bluffing or just plain bluffing than has you beat?

[DcifrThs]

Results:

looking back at the board i think either the diamonds were hearts or the clubs were hearts. either way i was shown a whopping Kh4h for an absolute nothing.

i posted this hand for a reason though, how many times have you had a "clear" check fold at limits above 30/60 and done it while being happywith your play? i know ive done it a lot and i think i may be costing myself some money since you see play like this enough from players like this to make a call down worth it. obviously its proportional to pot size but in general pots are usually worth it by this point.

a friend IMed me last night about this hand and the above is exactly what i told him. he could immediately remember one hand where this was the case and was shown (as a bluff or a bet by a worse hand) QT for some garbage hand nothing nothing that got him off his pair. clearly anybody can hold up the "RESULTS ORIENTED" flag and blah blah blah...but just think about those folds...im starting to go over my play to find those hands and see if a call woulda been worth it vs. that type of player.

-Barron

[phish]

Good post and good point.

If anything, I tend to have the opposite tendency. I would've called the river here only to be shown two pair and think "should've been an obvious fold." When I'm running bad, I tend to think that my biggest problem is I tend to call down too much.

But then I always go back to theory: you only need to win about 1 in 8 of these to be correct. Then I think about long term results: in 13 years of poker, I've never swung down more than 200 bets. If my game was truly leaky somewhere, I would see much deeper swings (as well as lower winrates). Then I go back to calling down.

And I reread Jennifer's Harmon's chapter in SuperSystem II and Chip Reese's chapter in Supersystem I, and they both emphasize the importance of calling on the river HU. And I know from my experience that I find people who are willing and ready to fold the river to be much easier to play against.

[anatta]

You imply some significance to the fact that your friend remembered one hand where he folded the winner, and then say don't say this is results oriented? C'mon man. Play the percentages. If they say fold in a given situation against a particular player, then fold. In a game of imperfect information, every so often you will fold the winner. WTF, one hand.

And yeah, check-folding the river with a pair in a big pot is usually a bad idea. After all, usually part of the reason you would call the turn raise is your opponent's "full of [censored]" factor. No matter what comes on the river, if your stats says his FOS% is above 8, you almost have to call.

[mach3]

Perhaps my thinking is skewed, having seen the results. But considering his hand ranges, what do you think of a 3-bet on the turn? My thoughts, he would have raised w/ 88, 99 or JJ - so not worried about a set. Might he have raised a straight draw (QT) or Jx on the flop? The only hand I really fear is 89s. Still - that Q would have crushed me... assuming he got frisky w/ T9.

[MrStretchie]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps my thinking is skewed, having seen the results. But considering his hand ranges, what do you think of a 3-bet on the turn? My thoughts, he would have raised w/ 88, 99 or JJ - so not worried about a set. Might he have raised a straight draw (QT) or Jx on the flop? The only hand I really fear is 89s. Still - that Q would have crushed me... assuming he got frisky w/ T9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had the same thoughts before seeing the results, but my opinion doesn't count for Too much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I look forward to seeing what better players have to say..

[Jeff W]

Looks like you played perfectly to me. I would not fold the river against this player. He will often have KJo for a split, J7s(J2s? J7o?) or a busted flush draw among other more bizarre holdings.