Stream of Consciousness

MrStretchie · #1 08-09-2005, 01:24 AM

OK.. this stream is based on a hand, so here it is:

Villian in this hand is UTG. His numbers are about 17/15/1.75. (This is 5/10 6-max.) So basically he's too tight, but otherwise a solid TAG.

I have AQo in the BB.

UTG raises, one loosie coldcalls, and I call in the big blind.

So.. let's see. 15% PFR is approximately..

AA-77, Any A KQ-KT, QJs, JTs is 11.. plus blind steal attempts and a few others..

So the BB call with AQo is certainly fine with another player as padding, as even from early position, it is not likely that the PFR has me dominated. Even heads-up, it must be fine.

So, flop comes down Qxx. I donk-bet, hoping to be raised to knock out the other guy. Donkbet looks weak here, so Villian may well raise with hands that I beat. And in fact, he may just call with a number of hands that beat me, which is great. As it turns out, he does raise, and knocks the other guy out.

Now then, what could he have? I'll make xx 72 rainbow, just for convenience. (Don't remember what they really were..)

So he could have.. AA-KK, set of Q's, set of 7's, JJ-88, set of 2's is unlikely but possible, AQ, AK, A7, A2, KQ, QJs. Maaybe AJ-A8 and maaaaaybe some random bluff.

So for each possibility, the number of ways to make that, followed by the percentage chance that he would raise the flop (and pf) with it, and the scaled number of ways.

AA-KK - 9 - 90% - 8.1
set of Q's, set of 7's - 4 - 50% - 2
JJ-88 - 24 - 80% - 19.6
set of 2's - 3 - 30% - 0.9
AQ - 6 - 100% - 6
AK - 12 - 50% - 6
A7, A2 - 18 - 65% - 11.7
KQ, QJs - 10 - 95% - 9.5

Soooo hands that beat me: 11
Hands that I beat: 46.8.

Just did those numbers now, and am actually pretty surprised at how Much more likely it is that I'm ahead. Knew it was pretty likely, but still.

OK. So I want to get as much money in as possible, unless it becomes more likely that I'm behind.

If I 3-bet the flop and bet the turn, I think most of the hands I'm beating are going to fold. However if I just call down, many of them will think they're good and keep betting into me. None has more than 3 outs, so that's fine.

So given all that, the line is

call the flop raise, check call the turn, ... bet or checkraise on the river?

Well, of the hands I'm beating, most bet the river, so this should be a checkraise, right? Can I fold to a 3-bet? My call call raise the river basically says I have at least AQ, so the question is basically whether there's a 1:12 chance he would bluff- or tilt- 3-bet here. Thoughts?

Please let me know whether you think any of my numerical or other assumptions are off.. Or if you agree with the assumptions, but think they point toward a different conclusion.

(BTW: I know this is a standard wawb situation, with the likelihood on wa this time it appears.. but it's still nice to go through the logic.)

Hmm.. another thing I'm wondering is whether it make sense to donk the flop at all if I expected it to knock out bad player. Perhaps check-calling all the way, or check-raising the flop, check-calling the turn and check-raising the river would've been better to try and keep him in?
(Obviously this no longer applies if xx is 78s rather than 72o or something..)

#2 08-09-2005, 01:33 AM

You don't actually go through anything like this at the table, do you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I see TPTK and like it.

MrStretchie · #3 08-09-2005, 01:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You don't actually go through anything like this at the table, do you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I see TPTK and like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No of course not. I usually don't even go through anything like this away from the table. But I think I should. Then I'll recognize a situation and go with it. At the table in this case, I 3-bet the flop, led the turn and he folded. I thought "shite. Wait. I think I played that stupidly." Then I figured since I was probably wa I should've slowplayed it. Then I decided to figure out exactly why.

And here we are. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#4 08-09-2005, 01:49 AM

I think you played it alright. You don't want to give a K a shot at you, and with the loosie's money in there, you sort of want to win this one without facing draws or a tricksy hobbit struggle.

MrStretchie · #5 08-09-2005, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played it alright. You don't want to give a K a shot at you, and with the loosie's money in there, you sort of want to win this one without facing draws or a tricksy hobbit struggle.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draws? I can understand making the loose player face 2 cold at the beginning, but you're saying you like the 3-bet on the flop? Which of my reasons for calling to the river do you disagree with?

crunchy1 · #6 08-09-2005, 08:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet the flop, led the turn and he folded. I thought "shite. Wait. I think I played that stupidly." Then I figured since I was probably wa I should've slowplayed it. Then I decided to figure out exactly why.

[/ QUOTE ]
What hands are you hoping that he holds that you hope he'll improve to a second best hand with?

MrStretchie · #7 08-09-2005, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet the flop, led the turn and he folded. I thought "shite. Wait. I think I played that stupidly." Then I figured since I was probably wa I should've slowplayed it. Then I decided to figure out exactly why.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are you hoping that he holds that you hope he'll improve to a second best hand with?

[/ QUOTE ]

None.. not a slowplay in that sense. Perhaps a 'rope-a-dope' is a better term.
If he holds JJ-99 for example, I could see him betting it all the way, but folding to a 3-bet on the flop and a bet on the turn. Not much I could have besides a pair of queens in that case.
Even AK I could see firing another barrel on the turn, then maybe even calling the river (and again it would obviously fold if I start playing back hard). And I want these 2-3 out hands to keep firing.