1600 posts in 2 years, 9 months, 3 days; Hand #9430 at $1/2; 99 in SB

[Kevin K.]

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Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I love this hand because it's so strange and so interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

How are you going to respond on the turn if
- A "safe" card falls?
- A diamond falls?
- An ace or five falls?
- A king or queen falls?

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The way the flop played out, three-bet for value and it isn't close. You want to make this pot very large because you have a very very good chance of winning it.

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No. You don't.

[einbert]

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No. You don't.

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The truth is, right now the pot is too large. Nothing you do is going to reliably protect your hand. BB could be making this checkraise with a ton of hands, including a 5, a 4, pretty much any PP, a flush draw, or a hand like 67 for two overcards and a gutshot straight draw. Some of the people in on the flop probably have hands like 89 that they think are drawing to 6 outs but are really drawing totally dead and you want to collect as many bets as you can from these hands. Even if a total blank comes on the turn (what is a total blank at this point? Pretty much any card besides the two nines is going to potentially help someone) you aren't going to reasonably expect BB to raise your bet. Right now you are most likely way ahead and I think you should collect all the bets you can. The pot has become tremendous and basically unmanageable but that isn't a terrible thing because due to this board lots of people are going to be willing to put in bets drawing dead. If an awful turn card like an A or a 5 hits you will have to deal with it but right now you have the best hand a huge percentage of the time.

Tell me, what is your great plan to protect your hand against this field in this ginormous pot on the turn?

[einbert]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.032 secs 20,812 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.4805 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.5506 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 18.1181 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { 7s6s }
Hand 4: 25.2252 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 25.0751 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 00.5506 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 7h7c }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 16.2663 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.9510 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 36.5365 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { 5h4h }
Hand 4: 19.7197 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 22.2723 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 04.2543 % [ 00.03 00.01 ] { 7h7c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.7227 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.7007 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 29.3794 % [ 00.29 00.01 ] { 7s5h }
Hand 4: 22.2723 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 24.2242 % [ 00.24 00.00 ] { QsJs }
Hand 6: 00.7007 % [ 00.00 00.01 ] { 7h7c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

666 games 0.005 secs 133,200 games/sec

Board: 2d 4d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.5676 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 00.4505 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 9h7d }
Hand 3: 23.4234 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 7s5h }
Hand 4: 13.8138 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { AdTc }
Hand 5: 44.2943 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { QdJd }
Hand 6: 00.4505 % [ 00.00 00.00 ] { 7h7c }

You only need slightly better than 16% equity to have an equity edge at this point. Your equity varies depending on some factors but it stays really high as long as you have the best hand right now, and I think this is the vast majority of the time. I don't mind making a huge pot on the flop.

[Kevin K.]

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No. You don't.

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The truth is, right now the pot is too large. Nothing you do is going to reliably protect your hand. BB could be making this checkraise with a ton of hands, including a 5, a 4, pretty much any PP, a flush draw, or a hand like 67 for two overcards and a gutshot straight draw. Some of the people in on the flop probably have hands like 89 that they think are drawing to 6 outs but are really drawing totally dead and you want to collect as many bets as you can from these hands. Even if a total blank comes on the turn (what is a total blank at this point? Pretty much any card besides the two nines is going to potentially help someone) you aren't going to reasonably expect BB to raise your bet. Right now you are most likely way ahead and I think you should collect all the bets you can. The pot has become tremendous and basically unmanageable but that isn't a terrible thing because due to this board lots of people are going to be willing to put in bets drawing dead. If an awful turn card like an A or a 5 hits you will have to deal with it but right now you have the best hand a huge percentage of the time.

Tell me, what is your great plan to protect your hand against this field in this ginormous pot on the turn?

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I never said there was a "great plan", only a better one. Like I said in my previous post...I look at this situation and say, "This sucks."

You said, "The way the flop played out, three-bet for value and it isn't close. You want to make this pot very large because you have a very very good chance of winning it."

You do NOT have a very very good chance of winning this hand, not even close. I mentioned in another post in this thread...Pokerstove 99 with this flop against 5 random hands and you are 20.6%. Think about it a sec. Probably more than half the deck beats you here.

There is only so much we can control. Betting the flop will not force mistakes from any of the hands that we fear. It will take a little luck, but if things fall into place on the turn, we may be able to face at least some of the field with 2 big bets that will give them poor odds for a gutshot or even an overcard draw assuming that some of their overcard outs won't be clean. Building the pot with what is really a bad hand with some potential only eliminates that option on the turn.

Basically, you're WAY overvaluing 99 with this flop 6-handed.

[Fantam]

Grunching:

I dont think that it is possible to protect your hand on the flop. So I would prefer to wait to see whether the turn card is favourable. Then depending upon the flop action, I would either bet or try for a check-raise (assuming a good turn card).

[einbert]

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Pokerstove this against random hands and you win 20.6% of the time. I look at 99, that flop, six players, and say "This sucks."

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The random hands thing really doesn't work very well. Due to the preflop action, there is quite a bit more weight on your opponents:
-Not having big pocket pairs
-Not having AK, AQ etc
You have to think of the kinds of hands that are going to be willing to put multiple bets in on this flop. So many hands are going to call call call here drawing totally dead. And if you get them to call three bets total, yes each call is individually +EV for them (often times NOT because they are drawing dead) but putting three bets total isn't because they don't have enough equity. 20% equity in a 6 way pot is enough equity that you make money on every bet that goes into the pot. I like exploiting edges in pot equity to make money in multiway pots, and I think that is the best way to make money in this one.

I just don't see a way to have significant fold equity on the turn given your position, etc. The pot is still going to be tremendous, but depending on the turn card you will likely still have quite the equity edge. I think the best way to play this is to just pump the pot because it's going to be ridiculous difficult to get people to fold the turn, and even when you bet the turn you're going to be giving any reasonable draw (overcards, a gutshot, any pair) odds to draw out on you. Since you likely won't have any fold equity (and thus can't make money by forcing other players to choose between -EV calls and 0 EV folds) I think the best play is to make money by making other players make +EV calls but pushing your pot equity edge.

-Still thinking about it, but I'd like to hear further reasoning (especially what kind of plan you have for trying to protect your hand on the turn, and why you think a 20-16 equity edge isn't enough to push hard at this point).

[Kevin K.]

You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

[einbert]

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.Pokerstove 99 with this flop against 5 random hands and you are 20.6%.

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Like I've already said, these hands aren't exactly random. We can weight them, and the weightings that are appropriate lead us to likely have even more equity than 20%. But we only need &gt;16.7% equity to have an equity edge in this pot, and if we have any equity edge at all we make money on every bet that goes into the pot.

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It will take a little luck, but if things fall into place on the turn, we may be able to face at least some of the field with 2 big bets that will give them poor odds for a gutshot or even an overcard draw assuming that some of their overcard outs won't be clean.

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I think we need to gauge the percentage of the time that we will actually be able to face the field with two big bets on the turn against the value we can make by having people that are drawing totally dead (89, 77) and the people that are drawing fairly slim (67, JQ) put in multiple bets on this flop.

The truth is, I think we're hardly ever going to be able to face the field with multiple big bets on the turn, and by now the pot is so tremendous even two big bets is going to get a call from a lot of hands (yes that will be great, but a lot of hands will probably call two big bets cold if we actually manage that even if we do three bet this flop for value).

You say I'm overvaluing my hand, but I am just trying to gauge the amount of EV we can glean from one option against another. 20% isn't the majority of the time, but it is an edge in a six handed pot.

[einbert]

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You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

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I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

[iNsChris]

After reading all the debate...


I fold the flop.

A, K, Q, J, T can all beat me.
Any Diamond can beat me.
Someone just betted/Raised the better - Even if its a small pair/Top pair(Board) i dont care.

And theres a straight Draw/If not already made.

Could debate it all day, But i fold and move on to my next hand.