I'm A Poker Expert!

[Ed Miller]

Ive done a quick 'back of the envelope' calculation and found that for this case you need them to fold with the better hand [and they wont often have a worse hand] about one time in twelve.

That isnt that frequently...

This is the point of the question. You need to know that the guy doesn't have to fold very often to make betting correct.

[Gigabet]

No wonder I suck at poker, i have no observational skills. Still wouldn't call Q8 there, if i am calling, i am raising to buy the button at the very least, but that is when I know the table pretty well, not in a 2/4 loose limit game.

[1800GAMBLER]

It "cleans up" your overcard outs. That is, by knocking out a player or two, you increase the chance that you will win the pot by catching a king or jack.

• Since you have position on the bettor, it might buy you a free card on fourth street (if you want it).

• It could help you win the pot without making your hand. Just because someone bets the flop doesn't mean he is committed to showing his hand down. People bet weak pairs and draws all the time. Raising will help you steal the pot if that's what Dangermaus is betting.

That's from the KJs hand.

2 out those 3 really don't appply to loose low limit games.

The flop was T93raindow and you have KJ with backdoor flush draw.

1. Cleaning up outs? 9J 9Ks aren't folding, the only hands you are knocking out are random overcards which would have a turn redraw on you when you make pair yet those not worth much. These hands would have also folded to your turn bet when you make pair.

2. Free card is a great benefit.

3. Win the pot unimproved? So many limpers seeing the limper-loving-flop?

No meantion of you may be ahead? Even though he is likely to either checkcall or checkraise with a draw.

[scrub]

After my really bad run in the 15, I played 10,000 hands of PP 3/6 to get my head straightened out. So, fresh from the trenches:

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3. Win the pot unimproved? So many limpers seeing the limper-loving-flop?

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Yes. If the flop raise bumps the rest of the guys off, which it does a not insignificant amount of the time, a turn bet will sometimes fold EP bettor. For whatever reason, EP betting into the PFR on a flop like this with rags that missed it or a 3 that they change their mind about calling down with seems to be a pretty popular play. You are also going to get hands like 77-44, 22 to fold some of the time when they would have called the whole way down for one bet at a time.

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2. Free card is a great benefit.

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I agree, but because an EP bet is so meaningless in these games from many players--and because a turn checkraise is so unheard of from most players--I tend to bet this turn again if the flop raise gets it heads up.

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1. Cleaning up outs? 9J 9Ks aren't folding, the only hands you are knocking out are random overcards which would have a turn redraw on you when you make pair yet those not worth much. These hands would have also folded to your turn bet when you make pair.

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Cleaning up one pair outs seems like it's not the biggest concern with these cards in this situation. Sometimes you are going to blow AJ or KQ off of the pot, though. You're also going to get people who would have turned a pair with a2c to fold many times when EP bettor is on total crap. It's certainly a benefit of the raise, especially blowing off 6 or more outs drawing against you the times you're ahead or going to fold EP when behind.

scrub

[1800GAMBLER]

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'a turn bet will sometimes fold EP bettor'

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I don't believe this. The party 15/30 isn't THAT loose and even in that AK AQ AJ calls you down.

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'If the flop raise bumps the rest of the guys off, which it does a not insignificant amount of the time'

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That is true but it doesn't matter if the above is true.

Of course given the other benefits just having the possibility that hell, the raiser may have KQ and everyone else has Ax Kx (x = missed) low pocket pairs.

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'Sometimes you are going to blow AJ or KQ off of the pot'

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On the flop for one bet, never. That's the bet we are discussing here. The only times it applies to the turn is when everyone else folds and then i think it's unlikely KQ folds his gutshot or AJ folds.

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'You're also going to get people who would have turned a pair with a2c to fold many times when EP bettor is on total crap'

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These are both unlikely cases the chance 1. You have EP beat * 2. A player sees a flop with A2o hits pair then folds i think is very slim.

It's not that i disagree with the fold it's just that i was shocked with the follow up saying it's a 'very clear' raise and that cleaning up outs was the number 1 reason.

[WEASEL45]

You're in the BB. how can you buy the button?

[MicroBob]

Ed is correct here (duh).

Players fold far more often then many tighter players think.

He could have 88, AJ, whatever....and at that point decide that your hand must be better than his.

It happens a LOT.

[1800GAMBLER]

... yet it also seems like i must be wrong if i'm disagreeing with Ed. Help Ed?

[Mikey]

I can't prove it to you other than to say, "Go try it out," but often the flop bettor will have a small pair or ace-high (especially online) and will fold it on the turn.

Hey Ed, I just want you to know that I have been out there and have been trying and you know what........ you're right it is working.
Thanks for the expert advice.

*Mikey

[Rushmore]

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Frankly, I don't understand when people say stuff like this, because it flies totally in the face of all of my experience. People fold all the time on the turn after betting the flop. I'd suggest you watch online games for a while, note who bets the flop, and watch to see how often that player folds on the turn and river. You'll find that it happens frequently. Not all the time or even the majority of the time, but it's quite common.

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Can we agree that this changes fairly drastically when we reach middle and high stakes?

Sorry to muddy the waters, but I can see that you are right, in many games.

But in the vast majority of the games I play in, this guy's flop bet would generally mean something more than an underpair, especially with several players taking the flop.

This would not change the flop raise, of course. I just think it would make some argument for avoiding a trap and/or value betting HIS hand for him on the turn.