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  #1  
Old 10-06-2005, 11:36 AM
lwlee lwlee is offline
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Default Blackjack vs Poker

Which one has the better profit potential with least amount of effort?

A friend of mine plays $25 min BJ at Borgata, six deck shoe, and routinely takes home $1000 or more a weekend. Of course, he card counts.

I play the $3-5 NL game at Borgata, my usual take home might be double my buy-in, about $300-400 for the weekend.

I feel that more or less these 2 games are at the same level, $25 min BJ is lowest you can play on a weeknight or weekend. $3-5 NL is a moderate NL game at the Borgata.

There are a number of advantages with BJ card counting,
- playing against the house with set rules, you only need to play the odds, no deception involved like bluffing in poker. Alright, you need to do a little of "bluffing" like blowing off some money so they don't label you a counter but that's not as difficult as calling an all-in bluff.

- my friend got his black Borgata card after like 10 weekend sessions, perhaps a total of 80 hours. You need 1000 hours of playing poker before you'll get the card.

Been reading Knockout Blackjack, doesn't seem particularly difficult to master. In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously, he picked it up from another friend and his system is not rigorous at all. Still he beats the game fairly well.
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  #2  
Old 10-06-2005, 12:19 PM
SheetWise SheetWise is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, you need to do a little of "bluffing" like blowing off some money so they don't label you a counter but that's not as difficult as calling an all-in bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]
Define difficult.
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  #3  
Old 10-06-2005, 01:00 PM
charlie_t_jr charlie_t_jr is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

[ QUOTE ]
In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously, he picked it up from another friend and his system is not rigorous at all. Still he beats the game fairly well.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, in respect to BR management, knowing the index plays, etc...then he's been getting extremely lucky and will soon go broke.

Generally speaking, BJ takes a bigger BR, and you'll experience much wilder variance...hold on!
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  #4  
Old 10-06-2005, 02:21 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

[ QUOTE ]
A friend of mine plays $25 min BJ at Borgata, six deck shoe, and routinely takes home $1000 or more a weekend. Of course, he card counts.

[/ QUOTE ]
this figure doesn't sound realistic nor sustainable. a KO 1-8 spread on a good 6-deck game (75% pen) has an expectation of about +0.63%. assuming 60 hands dealt per hour with a minimum bet of $25, the average earnings is around $10/hr. so in the long run, I'd expect him to earn no more than the same or slightly less than you do playing $3/5NL, and with a LOT more volatility.

[ QUOTE ]
my friend got his black Borgata card after like 10 weekend sessions, perhaps a total of 80 hours. You need 1000 hours of playing poker before you'll get the card.

[/ QUOTE ]
this I can believe since a card counter's average bet is about 2x the flat minimum, and comps are generally 20% of that. so if the floorperson was putting him down at $50 or more, then $10+/hr in comp sounds about right.

not that there's a gigantic value about getting Borgata Black, but there are ways to get the upgrade for considerably less bankroll risk or time than either blackjack or poker. for example, there was a recent opportunity for players to get upgraded to Total Rewards Diamond tier at Harrah's or Showboat for a relatively low wagering requirement, and with a 5x comp rate which made it virtually breakeven with the HA. With just 4-5 hours of action and theoretical loss of below $200 (not even including bounceback cash when I return), I am now a VIP at the same level as a slot machine player who has theoretically lost as much as $4000. best of all, I can take the Diamond card to Borgata this weekend and get upgraded to Black on the spot for an entire year.
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  #5  
Old 10-06-2005, 02:29 PM
lwlee lwlee is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

What? You've never been in a situation with bottom set, the board shows a 4 flush on the river. Opponent goes all-in. Compound the fact that you've built up your stack all night to a respective size, one wrong move and good bye hard work.

If that's too easy, how about 3 flush on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Define difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #6  
Old 10-06-2005, 02:34 PM
lwlee lwlee is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

I've talked to him about this. It's now been about 20-25 sessions where he's had about 20+ winning session. His biggest win has far outstripped his worst loss. After a point, it's no longer luck. My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ. Looks like he started off lucky and used his early winnings to maintain a good pace.

[ QUOTE ]

If this is true, in respect to BR management, knowing the index plays, etc...then he's been getting extremely lucky and will soon go broke.

Generally speaking, BJ takes a bigger BR, and you'll experience much wilder variance...hold on!

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #7  
Old 10-06-2005, 02:47 PM
lwlee lwlee is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

I had been trying to find out what a good hourly BJ rate was. My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour. It is widely divergent from your numbers. But I believe he steps it up after a while. 8x = $200. He goes beyond this, top bet could be $500, I'll have to ask him. His system is not optimized, which is why I believe that the floor hasn't tagged him as a counter, just lucky.

[ QUOTE ]
this figure doesn't sound realistic nor sustainable. a KO 1-8 spread on a good 6-deck game (75% pen) has an expectation of about +0.63%. assuming 60 hands dealt per hour with a minimum bet of $25, the average earnings is around $10/hr. so in the long run, I'd expect him to earn no more than the same or slightly less than you do playing $3/5NL, and with a LOT more volatility.

[/ QUOTE ]


He gets lots of perks with the card. 2-3 free nights in a room. He's been offered free show tickets. Life is good when you're beating the house and they want you back!

[ QUOTE ]
this I can believe since a card counter's average bet is about 2x the flat minimum, and comps are generally 20% of that. so if the floorperson was putting him down at $50 or more, then $10+/hr in comp sounds about right.

not that there's a gigantic value about getting Borgata Black, but there are ways to get the upgrade for considerably less bankroll risk or time than either blackjack or poker. for example, there was a recent opportunity for players to get upgraded to Total Rewards Diamond tier at Harrah's or Showboat for a relatively low wagering requirement, and with a 5x comp rate which made it virtually breakeven with the HA. With just 4-5 hours of action and theoretical loss of below $200 (not even including bounceback cash when I return), I am now a VIP at the same level as a slot machine player who has theoretically lost as much as $4000. best of all, I can take the Diamond card to Borgata this weekend and get upgraded to Black on the spot for an entire year.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #8  
Old 10-06-2005, 02:47 PM
SheetWise SheetWise is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

[ QUOTE ]
After a point, it's no longer luck. My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Cannot happen.
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  #9  
Old 10-06-2005, 03:09 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

[ QUOTE ]
I had been trying to find out what a good hourly BJ rate was. My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour. It is widely divergent from your numbers. But I believe he steps it up after a while. 8x = $200. He goes beyond this, top bet could be $500, I'll have to ask him. His system is not optimized, which is why I believe that the floor hasn't tagged him as a counter, just lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]
$100/hr at a $25 table is an expectation of over 6%. that is simply impossible to maintain in the long term. I also don't buy that your friend openly gets away with a 1-20 spread. while it's true that you can't legally get barred from playing blackjack in AC, any significant black action is going to tagged as "checks play" even at the Borg, and it is next to impossible to bet $500 in a single hand without both the pitboss and surveillance watching that player for the rest of the night. any combination of early shuffles or mediocre cuts will destroy his supposed advantage over the house. you might consider posting these stats to the more experienced players at www.bj21.com and see what they say.

and no offense to your friend's credibility, but if he's upstairs playing BJ while you're downstairs all night at the poker tables, how can you truly verify each other's results?

[ QUOTE ]
He gets lots of perks with the card. 2-3 free nights in a room. He's been offered free show tickets. Life is good when you're beating the house and they want you back!

[/ QUOTE ]
um, any old lady who plays quarter slots can get free rooms and show tickets. these cost the casino next to nothing to give to the player. free liquor and limo rides, then we'll investigate further.

this last statement you made shows how green you guys are about the casino business. congrats on your short-term luck, but don't try preaching to others about some new "system" you friend has created, when you don't have any tangible data to back it up.
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  #10  
Old 10-06-2005, 04:25 PM
lwlee lwlee is offline
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Default Re: Blackjack vs Poker

Ouch, belligerent are we. As a poker player I don't enjoy any of these "easy" perks you so readily get. A free room for 2 to 3 nights is a real perk. Casino generally only give out discounted room rates to most players.

Geez, you make it sound like I'm trying to hawk a "system". My friend does well at the BJ tables and I want to see if others do it too. If they do, I'll switch from poker. Don't blast someone just because they're asking for more information.

[ QUOTE ]

um, any old lady who plays quarter slots can get free rooms
and show tickets. these cost the casino next to nothing to give to the player. free liquor and limo rides, then we'll investigate further.

this last statement you made shows how green you guys are about the casino business. congrats on your short-term luck, but don't try preaching to others about some new "system" you friend has created, when you don't have any tangible data to back it up.

[/ QUOTE ]
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