Lay Down a Full House?

[zaphod]

No way i am folding this! You should not be worried that your opponent has you beat, but you should try to get all your money in the middle when you get this turn.
Checkraising the flop is ok, but you need to raise more.
On the turn your opponent will show you an 8 quite often(a8 or 98 seems most likely). But given that you made this post i guess he had 99.

Im getting a read on u, ure tight!

OK - I suppose it would be fair to say that everyone agrees with the call.

Here's my thought process, and why I didn't think it was automatic, focusing only on his possible holdings:

On the flop, he could certainly be bluffing, but it doesn't seem quite right - I would assume he would fold to a decent-sized CR if he had nothing. So, I think he has a decent hand. Here are the possibilities and my thoughts...

AK/KK - Not likely. He would probably have raised pre-flop.
KQ/KJ/KT - Definitely a possibility. I would consider these likely, in that he may think he's beaten, but wants to call to see the turn.
K9 - Possible. It's not a hand I would play there, but especiialy suited a lot of people will.
K8 - Probably not - I see a lot fewer people playing this hand.
99/88 - Definitely possible. He might have called to draw in the button and is planning a raise on the turn.
98 - Possible. Especially suited, I can see him playing this.

So, after the flop, I'm thinking he has KQ/KJ/KT/K9/99/98/88.

When the 8 hits on the turn, I'm obviously quite happy. I bet out, hoping to keep him somewhat interested in the hand, but get some cash in there.

His all-in raise on the turn really had me going, which is why I had such a tough time making the call. Going back to the earlier possibilities -

KQ/KJ/KT - I don't see this at all.
K9 - Maybe - this seems unlikely given that the board just paired - I would think he'd be a little more cautious - but I could see it.
99 - Maybe. I think he would have put in a smaller raise with this hand to keep me in, but I could see this, too.
98 - Certainly possible. I think this is pretty likely based on the way he has played so far.
88 - Not possible any more.

So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast. The only problem is, I still didn't feel good about the hands I had him on - something just wasn't clicking for me. That's what made this a hard call for me.

So, can anyone offer any thoughts on this line of thinking? Am I way off, should I have thought of something else, etc.?

I'll post the results separately so people can comment on this before they see what he was actually holding.

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So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast.

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I am pretty tired atm and I've looked it up and down, but doesn't 89 beat you as well?

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I am pretty tired atm and I've looked it up and down, but doesn't 89 beat you as well?

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Not on the turn when he had to make a decision

[Cosimo]

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So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast.

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I am pretty tired atm and I've looked it up and down, but doesn't 89 beat you as well?

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98 beats him on the river, but the round under consideration is the turn, when 98 has a lower two pair.

OK - the final results.

MP3 turns over JT - a hand I had not even considered. He was semi-bluffing the flop and called my raise with an open-ended straight draw, then raised me all-in on the turn with a paired board. I won the hand and did the happy dance.

As I played more with the guy (I think we played for about 75 hands), it turns out he really liked raising, particularly all-in. He ended up losing a decent chunk of cash before leaving the table.

So, part of the reason that I've been vague on my reason for posting this is that I never considered his actual holding as a possibility, which bothers me. I'm trying to improve my game, particularly reading hands, and I wanted to get some advice from everyone else. Looking back, this was clearly a possibility, but my thinking is that this kind of play was a very remote chance, so I probably shouldn't be too worried.

Comments?