Dangerous Thinking?

Dave H. · #1 12-22-2004, 12:34 PM

I've only been at this four months now and have only played nanolimits thru .02/.04 and then .05/.10 and now .10/.20

Through about 25,000 hands I have about a 5BB/100 win rate. I've read lots (especially in these forums) about how we can expect to hit 100BB or 200BB downslides.

My experience to date has been a 50BB loss 3 times during the 25,000 hands I've played.

Last night I experienced one of those 50BB losses. I won't bother you with bad beat info, but I certainly had my share in a short amount of time. I decided that, since my maximum loss had been about 50BB, that it was POSITIVE VARIANCE TIME. In other words, based on my past experience, it was "time" for a turnaround.

So I left the table I was on and played UP 2 LIMITS, i.e. I went from .10/.20 to .50/$1.00

My first hand at that limit was a rivered str8 beaten by a full house (how fun!). Then a round of folds and then 2 lovely hands in a row...Queens over Aces full followed by a set of Aces. I played a few more hands (winning one more medium pot) until I had to post the big blind again and then quit.

In about 10 minutes, I had made back all 50BB and was ahead significantly.

Simple questions:
IS THIS DANGEROUS THINKING, i.e. trying to TIME variance based on prior experience?

DOES ANYONE ELSE DO THIS AND HAVE YOU BEEN SUCCESSFUL or BURNED?

JinX11 · #2 12-22-2004, 01:03 PM

Variance and time are independent entities. You are never due an upswing or a downswing; as such, timing one or the other is not going to happen.

Believing otherwise is an immature gambler's philosophy. Such thinking leads to silly betting systems like the Martingale.

Escape · #3 12-22-2004, 01:13 PM

A deck doesn't have a memory. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Mr. Graff · #4 12-22-2004, 01:20 PM

What is dangerous here is moving up when you are running bad. IMO moving up should always be a calculated move that you have been contemplating and preparing for for some time and not a desparate impulse when you are losing. If you continue doing this chances are your poker career will be a short one.

ThaSaltCracka · #5 12-22-2004, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is dangerous here is moving up when you are running bad. IMO moving up should always be a calculated move that you have been contemplating and preparing for for some time and not a desparate impulse when you are losing. If you continue doing this chances are your poker career will be a short one.

[/ QUOTE ]excellent advice.

pudley4 · #6 12-22-2004, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I decided that, since my maximum loss had been about 50BB, that it was POSITIVE VARIANCE TIME. In other words, based on my past experience, it was "time" for a turnaround.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

stillbr · #7 12-22-2004, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is dangerous here is moving up when you are running bad. IMO moving up should always be a calculated move that you have been contemplating and preparing for for some time and not a desparate impulse when you are losing. If you continue doing this chances are your poker career will be a short one.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can look through my posts and see this is very true. I once had a pretty decent BR for 1/2 and blew it moving to higher (much higher) limits to try to regain my losses after a losing session. i then started all over with $100 BR left over, and now am back up to $700ish and healthy for 1/2 again.

bman00 · #8 12-22-2004, 03:53 PM

This is not a good reason to move up limits.

But if you have played 25,000 hands of .02/.04, .05/.10, .10/.20 you probably do not have a problem with wanting to move up limits to soon. You might be ready for .50/1.00 , but under bank rolled. You might want to look into the current bonus offer from The Gaming Club if the internet forum. It is a $300 bonus and that releases in $20 increments for every 100 raked hands at .50/1.00 (or 300 raked hands at .25/.5). If you have at least $50 and you play tight until you have released about $100 of that bonus I think it would be unlikely to bust out.

AngryCola · #9 12-22-2004, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IS THIS DANGEROUS THINKING, i.e. trying to TIME variance based on prior experience?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very dangerous thinking.
This is known as the "gambler's fallacy".

Don't ever make the mistake of thinking the cards have a memory, or that you are somehow "due". You are just as likely to lose the next hand after a 50 BB downswing as you were before you hit the negative swing.

Jeff A's post sums up my thinking about this reasoning pretty well.

Avoid doing this again. Among other things, it can leave you broke.

zephed56 · #10 12-23-2004, 05:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IS THIS DANGEROUS THINKING, i.e. trying to TIME variance based on prior experience?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very dangerous thinking.
This is known as the "gambler's fallacy".

Don't ever make the mistake of thinking the cards have a memory, or that you are somehow "due". You are just as likely to lose the next hand after a 50 BB downswing as you were before you hit the negative swing.

Jeff A's post sums up my thinking about this reasoning pretty well.

Avoid doing this again. Among other things, it can leave you broke.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are never "due". This is dangerous for another reason no one has mentioned, tilt.

You are probably playing on tilt unknowingly. By thinking you are "due", you may be making unprofitable decisions. "Hey, the pot's only 5SB, and I've got a gutshot, I guess I'll call because hey, I'm due."
You may even be adjusting your preflop play according to your belief.

This is tilt.