Russian Roulette

BonJoviJones · #1 10-19-2002, 02:11 PM

Me and 5 buddys get together over a 6 chamber revolver and a bullet. They offer me the chance to pick where to stand. Assuming I want to live, where do I stand? Assuming I want to die, where do I stand? Does it make a differance?

What if we had 5 bullets? What if we had 1 bullet and 20 chamber gun, but still 6 guys?

It seems to me I'd want to stand last, because the chance that it will get passed to me is low. The problem is that if it does get passed to me, the bullet will have my name on it. I have a sneaky feeling it all evens out for the simple case, and my choice of where to stand is moot.

brad · #2 10-19-2002, 02:41 PM

if you go last you only have 6.6% chance of getting shot which is less than 1/6 chance first guy has. assuming no replacement.

Mike Haven · #3 10-19-2002, 03:53 PM

if you go first you have a 5 to 1 chance of surviving = 16.7%

if you go second, of the 5 times in 6 that it gets that far
you have a 4 to 1 chance of surving = 83.3% x 20% = 16.7%

etc etc

so it doesn't matter where you stand (same sort of calcs go for the 1 in 20 scenario - don't stand first or second in the 5 out of 6 scenario - stand third to appear to be brave)

except if you are last in the first case and it gets that far you know you have the live bullet in the chamber and you can shoot the twat who thought of the game

brad · #4 10-19-2002, 05:45 PM

i got the 6.6% by assuming the chamber thing is spun every time.

Mike Haven · #5 10-19-2002, 06:02 PM

if the chamber is spun each time, each person is effectively starting a new set of blow brains out the trying to

so each person has a 5 to 1 chance of "success" = 16.7%

it's the old tossed penny has no memory thing

BruceZ · #6 10-19-2002, 10:18 PM

If the chamber is spun every time, then you obviously want to go last if you want to live, and first if you want to die. The way the poster plays [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] he doesn't spin it every time, so it doesn't matter where you stand for 1 bullet in 6 chambers. For 5 bullets in 6 chambers, only the first 2 can die, so if you want live just be 3-6, and if you want to die be 1st. For 6 bullets in 20 chambers, even if you don't spin it every time, you don't want to be 1st or 2nd if you want to live since then 4 chambers kill you, but only 3 chambers kill everyone else.

Bozeman · #7 10-20-2002, 02:09 AM

Why do you assume the game ends after one person dies?

brad · #8 10-20-2002, 03:03 AM

i thought that was the rules too.

Mike Haven · #9 10-20-2002, 08:45 AM

"Me and 5 buddys get together over a 6 chamber revolver and a bullet."

BruceZ · #10 10-20-2002, 08:56 AM

It seems to me I'd want to stand last, because the chance that it will get passed to me is low.