88 SB, overpair

[damaniac]

5/10 Motor City
The table is full of loose-passive fish, plus a few who are either somewhat too tight/passive, or sort of slightly loose/aggressive. Plus this woman who won't shut up about every pot she ever lost, complimenting her awesome play along the way. She's stuck about 600, which makes me happy.

Anyway, about 5 people limp, I complete with black 88 in the SB, BB checks.

7 for 7 to the flop.

Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, BB bets, about 3 people call, I call.

BB here is fairly tight (although not above tilting a bit) and reasonably aggressive. Sort of like a tag, but not aggressive enough. Everyone else loves to call, but assume that at least a couple of them have some standards. Also, I don't expect most of these players to pump a draw.

Turn, 5 players for 6 BB.

Turn is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I think about donking then check, BB bets, three people call, I fold.

This isn't exact maybe only two called on the turn, maybe it was 6 to the turn.

Thoughts?

I would bet and raise the flop unless I could be sure someone in LP will bet so I can check raise (which would be better). Basically you want to make overcards pay.

Id bet the turn, and folding to a raise from any of the flop callers.

If you think the BB wouldnt bet with anything less than top pair on the flop I'd fold to a raise from him as well.

[GHL]

I think I definatlly check call flop.. CR that turn.

what is your reason for only check calling the flop?

I was much more confused about him check raising the turn... You know BB is betting out, and with loose passives, you'll have at least 1-2 callers before it gets back to you... In my opinion raising here will not get rid of overcards, and only exposes you to getting raised when you lead on the river.... I think a bet/3 bet is the best play on the flop, and bet/fold on the turn...

Bit of a tricky spot. I think the flop play is fine. It's unlikely we'll fold out any overcard hands or marginal draws with a bet, and thus waiting for the turn, where our equity may change dramatically, is fine. Though, it's unfortunate BB led out, since it makes protection difficult.

Bet/3-betting or check-raising the flop here will only inflate an already large pot, and make it near impossible for us to protect our hand on the turn.

Turn is tough because of our terrible position, in my opinion. I think check/folding is okay here, given the size of the field. It's probable we're behind, and when ahead it's likely we'll have to dodge several river cards (any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], overs, & gut shot cards). Check-raising may be an option, after only two call, though BB has represented a lot of strength by leading into a very large field.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop play is fine. It's unlikely we'll fold out any overcard hands or marginal draws with a bet, and thus waiting for the turn, where our equity may change dramatically, is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that I really don't see that many safe cards on the turn. And, since we are first to act, we won't be able to face the field with 2 bets, meaning we won't be able to protect our hand on the turn even if we get lucky and get some kind of safe card.

[damaniac]

So are you actally suggesting I should c/r the entire table on this flop?

As far as turn, what cards are you donk-betting?

I was thinking about a 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, or T, probably no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Eh might donk some of those as hearts, and I'm not sure about the 7.

[gopnik]

probably none heart 2,4,8 are your only safe cards. Not that many. C/R the flop is no good because you are forcing people to suck out on you. I'd just call the flop and try to c/r the turn on a safe card or something. I don't know. Tough spot.

[damaniac]

I think just calling the flop is a no-brainer. I have the best hand at that point a large majority of the time. However, I will have the best hand at showdown much, much less. My equity is low and so I want to catch a blank on the turn before making a move. If the bet had come from late position I of course c/r.

When the 6 hit on the turn and the slightly passive TAG bet again, it all but eliminated (IMO) draws and middle pair hands from his range. Basically I'm now looking at top pair turned trips, a boat, straight, or some other good hand. About the only hand I can put him on that I'm ahead of now is 77, and he might well check that. Even if I'm wrong and his turn betting range is somewhat wider, someone else will either have me beat, or beat me on the river, a lot of the time, while I'm probably drawing to 2 outs. This was my thinking anyway.