Could you fold this ? (2nd edition)

[sourbeaver]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed)

CO ($37.45)
Hero ($131.15)
SB ($45.5)
BB ($49.5)
UTG ($48.75)
UTG+1 ($78.25)
MP1 <font color="purple">(GodDamnHim)</font> ($68.13)
MP2 ($102.82)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="CC3333">MP1 <font color="purple">(GodDamnHim)</font> raises to $4</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $4, SB (poster) folds, BB folds, UTG calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($17.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">GodDamnHim bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5, UTG calls $5, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($32.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">GodDamnHim bets $30</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, UTG folds, GodDamnHim calls $29.13 (All-In).

River: ($151.63) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $151.63

Basically, I put opponent on Kings or Aces, I can't see myself folding, but maybe someone sees otherwise.


Results in white below: <font color="white">
GodDamnHim has Qs Qc (full house, queens full of nines).
Hero has 3d 3h (full house, threes full of nines).
Outcome: Hero wins $151.63. </font>



p.s.: his name is not really GodDamnHim...

[mannika]

Depending on your read, I'd say chances are good that he has AA/KK/AQ, all of which you are beating. However, the one thing that should have tipped you off was the weak bet on the flop. With any of those three hands, I would expect a fairly strong bet on the pot of at least 1/2 pot sized. Again, this is a tough decision without a read though.

[soah]

If you're not happy about getting your chips in with a set, then just fold preflop. You need to get nearly his entire stack in each time you make a set in order to pay for all the times you call his raise and whiff at the flop.

[Tilt]

I could fold this preflop.

Your read was that he had a large overpair, so why on earth would you call preflop?

Well, so you did...and therefore must be committed to showing felt if you hit your set. When you get your card on the flop it is time to bet large, possibly push if you think you would get called by AA/KK/JJ.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

If you play 33 and flop a set, your money is going in.

Set over set is cruel and you should expect to lose your stack.

[dmk]

why would you fold this?!

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you fold this ? (2nd edition)


[/ QUOTE ]

No.

You played perfect. His preflop raise is about 6% of his stack, but there's a very good chance of getting him all in if you flop a set, so this would be a correct call preflop according to Ciaffone. Hope you took it like Phil Ivey would have.

I'd raise the flop though.

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
I could fold this preflop.

Your read was that he had a large overpair, so why on earth would you call preflop?

Well, so you did...and therefore must be committed to showing felt if you hit your set. When you get your card on the flop it is time to bet large, possibly push if you think you would get called by AA/KK/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have 33 and someone raises PF you are hoping they have a big overpair. That is the perfect situation for a baby pair at these tables and is where you will make a lot of your money.

Hero just got unlucky here and should never worry about set over set at Party unless the stacks get deep.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]

If you have 33 and someone raises PF you are hoping they have a big overpair. That is the perfect situation for a baby pair at these tables and is where you will make a lot of your money.

Hero just got unlucky here and should never worry about set over set at Party unless the stacks get deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here? It seems to me that the opponents stack is not large enought to make this worthwhile.

% chance of flopping a set without him flopping a set ~ 10%.
% chance of him flopping set over set ~ 1.5%

So you call $4 hoping to stack him. What happens?

88.5% you lose $4 at least, maybe more if you call on the turn.
1.5% you lose $68 (his stack)
On the 10% of the times you do hit the flop and get him all in on the flop, he'll still hit an overset ~20% of the time on the turn or river...so your average take here is $51.

Expected results from calling = $.5
EV of call = .5 - 4 = -3.5

This doesnt account for straights, flushes, etc, but I think its pretty clearly a bad call preflop. The opponents stack needs to be almost twice as large for this to be +EV. So as the stacks get larger thats when you worry less about a set over set.

[sourbeaver]

This is exactly the point of low PPs, hitting a set on somebody's overcards so that they give you their stack [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]