UB $5.50 - overpair, facing all-in

zPro · #1 11-17-2005, 08:28 AM

I've been getting busted by sets all night.
Is my judgement off?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 (t1050)
MP2 (t1215)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1180)
Hero (t1585)
BB (t1110)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t2600)
UTG+2 (t1820)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG+1 raises to t40, UTG+2 calls t40, 5 folds, Hero raises to t200, 1 fold, UTG calls t200, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls t160.

Flop: (t660) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t350, UTG calls t350, UTG+2 raises all-in for t1620, Hero pushes, with UTG left to act

Sciolist · #2 11-17-2005, 09:25 AM

I'm pretty much playing the hand the same way. I take it you lose to 999?

Kurn, son of Mogh · #3 11-17-2005, 10:02 AM

You have one pair. UTG+2 has just pushed over 2 players who have shown strength on a board with no draws. Admittedly, people do strange things at the bottom levels, but other than a pure bluff, what does he push with that you beat?

A9, TT...?? I don't see 2 pair here. If the range that he holds is A9 (12), TT (6), 33 (3), 44 (3), 99 (3), QQ (6), you're ahead 18:15 getting better than 2:1 on the call. Even if you put AA & KK in his range, you're only a 3:2 dog against that range. Add in 10% equity for bluffs and calling is definitely +CEV .

The question is, does he make this play with the hands you beat just as often against 2 players as HU? If he makes the play half as often as with hands that crush you, I think you can fold. You definitely have enough chips left to play on and win if you fold.

It's a close decision. This early in a $5, I'd lean towards calling in a +CEV situation.