($60) sure, NOW i get JJ

[pooh74]

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I don't think this is all that borderline. Even with your read on BS, you still have a good amount of fold equity here, and your destroying a lot of the hands he might call with. The fact that blinds are going up soon gives me more reason to push this as you'll lose almost all fold equity when they do and would thus be playing to limp into third.

IMO...you have way too much fold equity to not push here, the extra 500 in chips is very valuable, and you're a big favorite to double up if called.

FWIW, I probably fold this if UTG pushes.

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I dunno...I think this is where ICM becomes very important and where the correct play shocks your intuition. There are some stack distributions where doubling up is clearly correct and some where playing for third is clearly correct. This, in mind, leans toward the latter.

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Meh. He has 670, not 200. It's not like he's totally wasted. Bluefeet ran a scenario that tried to mock this one, and IMO even that scenario, which was +EV, understates our EV. I shove.

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Like I said...its not wrong to push here, and given UTG is limping a lot you are crushing his range. In real time, after having seen UTG play like a donk I probably shove, but I post on these boards often to play devil's advocate to help me think about these sitauations some more...so, you say "he has 670 no 200". Well, he has 3 hands after this one to double through (he'll be AI on his next SB if he doesnt double on the first two), does that change your thinking or not really?

Another thing to think about regarding FE (and this will be obvious to some, not to others) is that when a bigstack limps, he is planning to call AIs from some but not others...Its always important to think about where you fall in his eyes.

This might not apply here, but I think many players think "well, he limped, so therefore I have FE, pooosh". Often though, you are one of those very players he plans on calling but he limps to avoid the confrontation with the BS (here in the BB). For example, a hand like KQs he does not want to play for his tourney life but will gladly flip with someone who won't even cut him half and will still leave him well within 1st place striking distance.

Dont overestimate FE.


All that being said...you cant really go wrong here except by folding.