NCAA Picks...Some Analysis...

YTD:8-9...Last Week 2-1 on analysis plays, 4-2 on all posted plays...

I've got 5 games that are looking real nice and maybe a 6th...

Ore/Cal 58 Under...Oregon will be starting a new QB this week in Dixon. Ayoob has been a sore disappointment this year. Weather reports from Eugene indicate mid 40's, and lots o' rain. Cal's bread and butter is toting the pigskin but they should have some tough going v. Oregon's front 4 and 2 of the 3 leading sack artists in the Pac 10. I look for Belotti to keep the schemes simple for his new QB and not try anything exotic (re: big plays for TD's). Cal doesn't have a breakaway deep thread and over 65% of their TD's have been scored on the ground, I think the clock will be nearly constant in this game and expect a total in the high 40's/low 50's.

Other plays...
NU -1 v. KS, I think Nu is a bit underrated they've fallen behind the 8 ball in their last 4 matchups allowing TD's on opening drives. I can't seem to figure this NU team out, when they want to, they can hang points up like crazy...like they score out of neccessity to keep games intersting. With the exception of the WF game (where the D did most of the scoring) they haven't dominated anybody. The only way Kansas wins this game is if Gordon burns NU on special teams or they can convert NU turnovers into points. Their defense will keep them in it, it's probably the best in the Big 12. But similar to another game this week, the defense will wear down due to the offense constantly going 3 'n out and NU will break a couple plays. NU wins 17-10.

KState +8 v. ISU...Both teams seem to play better down the road and this year is no exception KState played CU very tough last week and ISU blew out a hapless A&M team. This is more of a trend play where Snyder is 14-5 ATS on the road then anything. I really like what I'm seeing out of Everidge (a Papillion, NE product), he's tough, he's mobile but he's still a RS Frosh. I just think this is a 4-7 point game...so I'll take my 8.

Texas v. Baylor -28.5 There's only two teams I feel comfortable laying this many points with USC & Texas, Baylor has played alot of teams tough but with their horrid offense coupled with the weird BCS talk where Texas can run the table and maybe get left out. Texas is the early game I expect a statement out of Mack Brown's team Baylor scores 10 points tops and UT rolls as the starters play into the 4th qtr...UT wins 49-10.

AF v. Army -11...DeBerry's white guys finally are playing a team they can beat. The service academy's love to pound the bejesus out of each other and I look for AF to carry some 4th quarter momentum over against a hapless Army team fresh off a W vs. the powerhouse known as Akron. AF has gotten torched by explosive MWC offenses the last couple weeks well Army is somewhere around 105th in scoring offense so that shouldn't be a problem. Army hangs around for a half before superior talent prevails. AF wins 34-14.

Other play Iowa -2.5 v. NW...it's like when you play a sport against your little brother. Sometimes he goes on a run and wins a couple games he shouldn't but eventually the big brother steps in and puts him in his place. We saw it last week with Michigan and we'll see it again with Iowa. Let the public ride NW to the poverty line. Iowa at -2.5 is a steal.

[Jibbs]

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Other plays...
NU -1 v. KS, ... NU wins 17-10.


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I hope thats the finish since I am a Nebraska fan but I am staying away from the side on this one. I am considering the under at 38 with two good defenses playing against two anemic offenses. BTW. I just saw this line at a PK on Bodog if your looking to save a point.