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#1
10-25-2005, 06:27 PM
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Lets end the Stupidity Please
The idea that it is good to be in the "red zone" because you will have more +EV situations is stupid. Here's why. When you have a 6x stack maybe its easy to find a 60% chance of doubling up, but if you win, you only double up to twelve freaking BBs. Lets look at some numbers. If you have 6 BBs and get it in as a 70/30 favorite twice (an incredibly wildly optimistic assunmption) then what's your ev. Well you double to 12x .7 of the time or 8.4, and then you double up again to 16.8 .7 of the time or 11.76. So even if we assume you can get it in as a 70/30 favorite twice, you have on average less than 12x. If you gamble as a 1.5:1 dog for 9 BBs out of your 15x stack then .4 of the time you will have 24 BBs, and .6 of the time you will have 6 BBs so your ev equals (.4)(24)+(.6)(6)=9.6+3.6=13.2. In other words even if you gamble is only a relativels small dog now you would still need to get it in as a big favorite twice later 100% of the time for this theory to make sense. It just makes no sense.
*Note, this post is not talking about pot odds and is assuming that you are getting a 1:1 return on your gambles. 
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#2
10-25-2005, 06:37 PM
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Re: Lets end the Stupidity Please
vn post.
BTW, no ones blue any more!?!!? o and houston retired [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#3
10-25-2005, 06:38 PM
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Re: Lets end the Stupidity Please
In my opinion, the main reason a double up in the red zone is so meaningful is because if someone calls you from out of the blinds and the blinds fold (say you have a 4bb stack) you are playing for a 9.5bb stack, which is almost 2.5x your current stack. If you have 10 bb for example, and want to go by betgo's theory, and the same person calls, you are playing for a 21.5 bb, only slightly more than 2x your stack, which is not as meaningful as the red zone all in.
That, in my opinion, is why it is better to go all in with more hands in the red zone, because you are not just doubling up when you do it, you are getting more chips than a double up, so you can take worse odds because of it.
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#6
10-25-2005, 06:52 PM
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Re: Lets end the Stupidity Please
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] god i love eli [/ QUOTE ] Amen. [/ QUOTE ]
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#7
10-25-2005, 07:03 PM
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Re: Lets end the Stupidity Please
I was in the "red zone" last night with 40 people left in the Party Super Monday.
EP raised, I go all-in with KK, BB goes all-in with 99, EP has an auto-call with 89h. Flush on river.
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#9
10-25-2005, 07:05 PM
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Re: Lets end the Stupidity Please
[ QUOTE ]
The idea that it is good to be in the "red zone" because you will have more +EV situations is stupid. Here's why. When you have a 6x stack maybe its easy to find a 60% chance of doubling up, but if you win, you only double up to twelve freaking BBs. Lets look at some numbers. If you have 6 BBs and get it in as a 70/30 favorite twice (an incredibly wildly optimistic assunmption) then what's your ev. Well you double to 12x .7 of the time or 8.4, and then you double up again to 16.8 .7 of the time or 11.76. So even if we assume you can get it in as a 70/30 favorite twice, you have on average less than 12x. If you gamble as a 1.5:1 dog for 9 BBs out of your 15x stack then .4 of the time you will have 24 BBs, and .6 of the time you will have 6 BBs so your ev equals (.4)(24)+(.6)(6)=9.6+3.6=13.2. In other words even if you gamble is only a relativels small dog now you would still need to get it in as a big favorite twice later 100% of the time for this theory to make sense. It just makes no sense. [/ QUOTE ] exactly....you definitely need to make this move before you are whittled down. ...but not sure if I love Eli, though!! Stipe
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