5-5 live

[FreakDaddy]

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FWIW I think QQ is most likely. Then AA. Then KK.

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2 of the queens are accounted for, and two of the kings. I would think a set or busted straight draw would be more likely. If villain is really a "solid player" what is he doing check/calling his bullets all the way down?

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It's called being tricky and smart. A busted straight draw is a possibility too. Slightly more remote, but a possiblity.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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FWIW I think QQ is most likely. Then AA. Then KK.

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2 of the queens are accounted for, and two of the kings. I would think a set or busted straight draw would be more likely. If villain is really a "solid player" what is he doing check/calling his bullets all the way down?

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It seems like villain wanted to c/c, c/r but when that plan was foiled he c/r river nstead of turn.

[arod15]

I think I lead the turn here. I dont know about the river, its very read dependent, but folding here more often than not is the correct play....

[BobboFitos]

this is a tough spot

so........... is this a river checkrase bluff or a river value raise.

you said he wanted to repop you. everyone thinks that just means aa,kk,qq but live 'wanting to repop' is a bit wider.

thing is i love how you played it from start to river now it's time to finish the hand.

you're getting 400:~1200, if you ever think he can do this with someething like AA you need to call. would he play AA in that fashion?

riv c/r in my experience just arent bluffs, when they are the hand and board plays out much differently as well, this is probably a fold, but in my mind i say: "I have top two pair. Top two pair is a good hand in holdem. Villain is a bit tricky. I only need to win X% to breakeven+. Lets see if he outplayed me!"

So call, then if you win scream "THATS NO RIMIT BABY" and if you lose go to dtbog and say "we're driving back to cornell now."

[dtbog]

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So call, then if you win scream "THATS NO RIMIT BABY" and if you lose go to dtbog and say "i'm heading up to the room, I have $4.50 left to blow and there's some Fiji water in the minibar with my name on it"

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[amoeba]

I think the only possible hand that plays it this way and that you beat is 56 or 67.

[slydeni]

wow-- great post!

my thoughts:

1. I'd love to know what your table image was here maybe what kind of hands you have been showing down. Does villain see you as tricky? loose? tight? This info. would help tip the scales of this very borderline decision.

2. I think on the turn I am betting a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet. I am thinking this:: "he calls $40 and checks blind. He could be on a draw with 7,8 (20% of the time maybe?) ; he could have a whopper (aa, kk,qq, 55)-- maybe 50% of the time?; or maybe a bluff set-up to chk rz later 20% of time? ; and maybe same hand as me (KQ), 10% of time? "

now... with this...I like betting the turn to gain more info about this situation i am in. if he pulls the chk rz trigger here...its easier to get away from with just tptk. with us checking - he may have had his plans foiled and wants to try again on river (especially if he thinks yer aggressive and will bet the river).

so what am i sayin?
i think i woulda bet the turn, and folded to a chk rz all in move there. with the way it was played, i woulda checked again on the river to avoid this kinda situation.

but with the way it all went down...I would bite my tongue, clinch my muscles, and prolly lay this one down. Yah theres a decent chance you got him, but I think if this is replayed a 10000 times... yer EV is gonna be slightly negative here.

My ultimate guess: he has same hand as you OR a set.

anyone have any thoughts on my thoughts?

GREAT POST, thanks for typing it up bro-

sly

[Falker11]

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wow-- great post!

my thoughts:

1. I'd love to know what your table image was here maybe what kind of hands you have been showing down. Does villain see you as tricky? loose? tight? This info. would help tip the scales of this very borderline decision.

2. I think on the turn I am betting a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet. I am thinking this:: "he calls $40 and checks blind. He could be on a draw with 7,8 (20% of the time maybe?) ; he could have a whopper (aa, kk,qq, 55)-- maybe 50% of the time?; or maybe a bluff set-up to chk rz later 20% of time? ; and maybe same hand as me (KQ), 10% of time? "

now... with this...I like betting the turn to gain more info about this situation i am in. if he pulls the chk rz trigger here...its easier to get away from with just tptk. with us checking - he may have had his plans foiled and wants to try again on river (especially if he thinks yer aggressive and will bet the river).

so what am i sayin?
i think i woulda bet the turn, and folded to a chk rz all in move there. with the way it was played, i woulda checked again on the river to avoid this kinda situation.

but with the way it all went down...I would bite my tongue, clinch my muscles, and prolly lay this one down. Yah theres a decent chance you got him, but I think if this is replayed a 10000 times... yer EV is gonna be slightly negative here.

My ultimate guess: he has same hand as you OR a set.

anyone have any thoughts on my thoughts?

GREAT POST, thanks for typing it up bro-

sly

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I have been playing for an hour at this table. My image is TAG, and I haven't got caught bluffing yet. The only hand I have shown down is a flopped flush with AKh

I don't agree with betting the turn. My main objective after the flop is to get to a showdown with my TPGK. Of course once I two-pair up on the river there are a lot of hands I am possibly beating so I felt a bet was necessary, what do you think?

Falker

[Falker11]

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this is a tough spot

so........... is this a river checkrase bluff or a river value raise.

you said he wanted to repop you. everyone thinks that just means aa,kk,qq but live 'wanting to repop' is a bit wider.

thing is i love how you played it from start to river now it's time to finish the hand.

you're getting 400:~1200, if you ever think he can do this with someething like AA you need to call. would he play AA in that fashion?

riv c/r in my experience just arent bluffs, when they are the hand and board plays out much differently as well, this is probably a fold, but in my mind i say: "I have top two pair. Top two pair is a good hand in holdem. Villain is a bit tricky. I only need to win X% to breakeven+. Lets see if he outplayed me!"

So call, then if you win scream "THATS NO RIMIT BABY" and if you lose go to dtbog and say "we're driving back to cornell now."

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Rob,
What do you make of the turn check blind?

I think it is possible for him to have played AA like this up to the river, but I think it is VERY unlikely he would checkraise on the river if he was playing AA.

I think my odds were ~2:1 not 3:1 on the river.

Falker

[Falker11]

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The only thing reasonable I see villian having that makes any sense is KK. I don't see him havig QQ,

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please elaborate (I don't see why)

Falker

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Why do you check a set in the dark and make yourself look strong? You said he's tricky and I can easily see him having KK here and taking the risk of and Ace flopping. At least that's what I'd do in order to throw you off and take down a bigger pot. AA is my second guess here.

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This line with KK makes sense and is not somthing I thought of during the hand...I don't see him having AA here before QQ though, the river c/r just doesn't make sense with AA.

Falker