2:1 on a flush draw??

[skitzo444]

I was rereading a poker book and it said when you flop a 4 flush you will make it about 30% of the time giving you odds of aprox. 2-1. This means that if the pot size is double the BB after the flop it is correct to chase?? It seems like the pot will always be this big, and assuming the pot is 2 big on the turn it is still correct??

[Luzion]

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I was rereading a poker book and it said when you flop a 4 flush you will make it about 30% of the time giving you odds of aprox. 2-1. This means that if the pot size is double the BB after the flop it is correct to chase?? It seems like the pot will always be this big, and assuming the pot is 2 big on the turn it is still correct??

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Its actually more like 35% from what I recall. What they really mean is that you will make your flush about 35% from the flop to the river. Thats seeing 2 cards.

And no. You will be seeing bets on both the flop and turn, so you need to account for this. You need to have proper odds just to see the next card. Factor in some implied odds, and its about 1:4 to see the next card.

[KJL]

It is 2-1 to hit by the river from the flop. However if you have to call a bet on the flop and turn, you have to count both of those calls. The way I do it is I look at the odds in terms of my chance to hit on the next card, which in this case is 4-1.

[WalkAmongUs]

How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

[Luzion]

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How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not correct math.

1 - (38/47)(37/46) = 0.34967 = 0.35 = 35% you will make flush by the river.

Also, it's more complicated then having assuming you can always make this play +EV against 2 callers. You have to consider the size of the pot.

Your odds of catching the flush on the turn is 4.2:1. If the pot is only 3SB, then raising two callers is not really +EV since they are putting 2SB each for a pot total of 7SB, while you yourself are putting 2SB. If the pot was 6SB on the flop because you pf raised, then yes it COULD be profitable. Raise behind them, they are putting in 2SB each, for a pot of 10SB while you yourself contribute 2SB. Of course, if they 3bet and cap the flop, they just made you put in too much money.

So the lesson is its a lot more complicated. You have to consider amounts of opponents calling and pot size. You also have to factor in the free card play, possibility of getting 3bet/capped back at, and implied odds before raising for value.

[Mr. Curious]

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How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

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Your odds of catching the flush on the turn is 4.2:1. If the pot is only 3SB, then raising two callers is not really +EV since they are putting 2SB each for a pot total of 7SB, while you yourself are putting 2SB. If the pot was 6SB on the flop because you pf raised, then yes it COULD be profitable. Raise behind them, they are putting in 2SB each, for a pot of 10SB while you yourself contribute 2SB. Of course, if they 3bet and cap the flop, they just made you put in too much money.

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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

[Luzion]

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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

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You are only at 35% pot equity only if you stay until the river. To be profitable, you need more then two people before raising is profitable.

[anatta]

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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

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You are only at 35% pot equity only if you stay until the river. To be profitable, you need more then two people before raising is profitable.

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Sorry but the original quote is correct, you have the best of it getting 2:1 on a 35% shot on the flop. You make money so long as you have two opponents and are sure that you will win 35%.

[Luzion]

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Sorry but the original quote is correct, you have the best of it getting 2:1 on a 35% shot on the flop. You make money so long as you have two opponents and are sure that you will win 35%.

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Certainly. If your opponents stay until the river too.

Your not going to win everytime you make a flush.. and if your capping the flop I don't think it's still +ev because of flopped boats, sets, two pairs that fill well you also hit. are more likely...