Funny Story about a Super Bowl Pool

[Kevin]

Like most of America, I bought my square for $10 for a winner-takes-all $1000 prize.
Last week, I worked with a friend of mine at work to do an analysis in excel where we imported the scores from all 512 games this season and did an =right, =mid formula to give all of the right(final) digits - we then subtotaled and built a matrix that showed the %of probability for each square and what each point total was worth for a $10 bet. For example, 7 7, 1 1 and 3 3 was worth like $63 for a $10 bet - or 6+x the average $10 square. I think that 2 5 was the weakest with a $.37 payout for a $10 bet, etc. By Friday afternoon, this chart was starting to get around the office. I happened to have 4 for NFC and 3 for AFC which was about $20.43 for a $10 bet. Four guys that I work with thought they would be sly and offer me into their consortium. The best was 4-6 was was just over $9 and the worst was the glorious 8-1 which was just over $6 for a $10 bet. I had 2x better than any of them, but they offered me a 20% cut. (one guy actually had bought two squares so we had 6 squares - but none of the others were worth $10). I made sure that they knew that I was aware what was going on and not wanting to be a party pooper - and the aggregate oods were about $65 or about 15 to one - I joined the consortium.

I was excited at 34-3 and real excited at 34-21 when Oakland was going for two and it looked for a moment like Jerry Porter was forced out of bounds. After that, I had just decided to take my 2nd place in the fantasy pool and be happy with my $50 on a $25 investment.

Then, something happened.

Derrick Brooks made it 41-21 ($63/10) and it looked like that would be the final score. As we were cleaning up from the party, I said to my wife, I sure could use an interception returned for a touchdown..ha ha ha... and lo and behold my new favorite player, Rich Gannon sends a nice missle that gets returned with just enough time that an extra point is necessary and Martin splits the uprights for a 48-21 win and I have my share of $1000. The guy who had 1-1 (the self-proclained luckiest man on earth) said that he was rolling on the floor in agony - having already spent in his mind the $1000.

They brought me in to increase their aggregate odds and the guy with the longest shot was the one with the magic 8-1. I guess it pays to good guy and go along for the ride sometimes....

lol (Just kidding - I should have asked for a weighted payout while I had the best of it - but I was just happy to be included)

Let me know if anyone has ever done - or ever seen a similar matrix on the scores - or if 512 games for one year is enough of a sample for a fair representation (should I have made it 3-5 years?)

Hope everyone won big yesterday!

Kevin