thinking....

They didn't raise the flop what sort of 2pair did you put them on?

[W. Deranged]

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well, lets think about this. What hand does he play like this? He is a winning and thinking player.

JJh, sure.. but I would expect a flop or turn raise here?
99h seems to fit...

What else is in his hand range? AJo? Doubt it...

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I think that given the hand ranges a solid player would in fact be well served not to raise here at any point with the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] considering he's drawing basically all the time and up against hands (top two, a big set) that are three-betting him like every time.

But then again, I'm the guy you kept check-raise bluffing at the Wynn 30/60 so...

[milesdyson]

the guy with the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has the nuts on the turn.

thinking a little more about this his turn call with the nuts makes sense. everyone in the hand is a good player and it went 4 way for 4 bets. the deck is crippled, and he knows that. he's trying to get bad calls from AK/AQ (and keep QQ from folding for two).

on the turn, how many outs would a guy have with AA here on average with this preflop action and this flop?

[private joker]

I fold preflop, but I wouldn't want to derail discussion from the river. I agree with Evan on that.

[rt1]

lol... nice to meet you dude.

this guy is always raising a J here. hes got 12 outs against 3 players who arent folding. this was the key factor that made me think he doesnt have the J.

youve played with me... i check raise and 3 bet all the time with nothing. we only played what, 2-3 hours togeather and i did it what? 4 or 5 times in that game. im about 30x worse when i play online. i get a lot of action because i look like a crazy.

it turns out he had 99. He has 2 hands here 99/JJ... that no raise on the flop/turn made me think slightly more often he has 99.

i dont think i got lucky here, o well... as always, thanks guys [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PITTM]

this is really dependant on the game youre playing.

rj

[Moozh]

Without reading the other replies too much...

I would have called the first river raise. The jack would likely play exactly that way. What else would? I doubt a nine or eight would try and get tricky by smooth-calling the turn. A low heart that wanted a showdown would definitely raise the turn trying to fold middle hearts.

When he raises you on the river, what's the value in a 3-bet? You have to assume he'd call you, yet you can't fold to a four, so you need to be sure he has the jack less than 1/3 of the time. I would think he'd have the jack up to 2/3 of the time when he raises that river.

Looking at early hand ranges (cold-called 4 preflop) can kinda help here, but it makes it seem even more likely he has a high diamond. With a cap already in, he could be calling with position with possibly any pair or suited broadways. It's unlikely he has anything else. If he has a suited broadway, his play indicates he has the jack of hearts (because no other suited broadway would be played that way). If he has a pair, it's probably 88, 99, or JJ of hearts by the end. So, the only way you're likely ahead is if you're up against 88 or 99 or a bluff. And only against 88 and 99 is a river raise valueable (unless you think he'll bluff 4-bet).

Finally consider his 2nd level thinking. What hand are you representing? You capped pre, you bet the flop and the turn into large fields with the flush cards out. By this point, he knows you either have a set or a strong heart (you can't have both). But, if he thinks you have a set, does he raise the river with a middlish heart? There might be some small value in it if he thinks you'll call playing the board. But, he must be scared about you having either JJ or TT with the heart.

In the end I see it as either he has the jack, or something much weaker. I really only see much value in re-raising if he had the 7, 8, or 9. I don't think he has those cards enough to make a re-raise profitable.

[Moozh]

Hey rt,

Good post. I'm surprised he played 99 that way. I think he really needs to raise the turn here because there's a strong possibility that someone has a set with outs to improve. If he thinks he has the high heart, it's very likely that this will be his only chance to get value out of his flush. Perhaps he was waiting to see what would happen behind him on the turn. When everyone else folded, then he could open up more.

Even so, I hate his river 4-bet unless he has a good read on you. What do you 3-bet there that he's so sure he's ahead of, he can make it 4? I just don't see anything.

I've got to ask....Does everyone bet this flop?