Big Action w/ AKs

oly71 · #1 10-27-2005, 06:38 PM

I was just playing on a fairly typical afternoon Party table (30% VP$IP avg, 5% PFR avg) with the following hand. The first raiser is sLP pre-flop and fairly passive post flop, the BB is tight/typical pre-flop, aggr post flop (not that that really mattered based on my draw, I think). The real questions are were the calls mathmatically correct?

Pre-flop, I believe I have to play and reraise, the cap is somewhat disconcerting but not too bad. On the flop, the action gets to me with the pot laying me ~10:1. I have a gutshot draw to the nuts a backdoor nut flush draw and two overcards (~8.5 outs if you think the overcards are good, ~5.5 outs if you don't count the overcards). Good enough to call. Whoops, another raise and a reraise and it's back to me with the pot laying 14:1 (15:1 if the other two call the cap). Better odds than before but now it's getting ugly. The turn card gives me 7 full outs for the nut flush (T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] could make someone 4 of a kind) plus 3 outs for the nut straight (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes a heart flush). I'm fully committed at this point. It's 17:1 to call the first turn bet to me (gotta do it), ~11:1 for the 2nd turn bet and 27:1 the last time around. Alas, none of the draws hit and I fold the river because I'm surely beat by one of the two players that's willing to bet/checkraise/cap every street.

So, was this a correctly played hand that missed its draw, or should I have been including potential (likely?) raises behind me when considering my calls?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold, UTG+1 calls, [color=#666666]1 fold, [color=#CC3333]MP1 raises, [color=#666666]2 folds, [color=#CC3333]Hero 3-bets, [color=#666666]2 folds, [color=#CC3333]BB caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](4 players)
[color=#CC3333]BB bets, UTG+1 calls, [color=#CC3333]MP1 raises, Hero calls, [color=#CC3333]BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, [color=#CC3333]MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, [color=#CC3333]MP1 bets, Hero calls, [color=#CC3333]BB raises, UTG+1 folds, [color=#CC3333]MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, [color=#CC3333]BB caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (28.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](3 players)
[color=#CC3333]BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 30.25 BB

McGahee · #2 10-27-2005, 06:43 PM

NH

VoraciousReader · #3 10-27-2005, 06:55 PM

I want to fold this flop.

I know the pot is huge but we have a bet and a raise in front of us and the very real possibility of more behind us. We were capped preflop, which means our overcard outs almost certainly aren't. We can't count the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as a full out. And the answer to your question is yes, you should consider potential action behind you if you're calculating pot odds on a call. However, as you pointed out, once you call the first 2 bets on the flop, the hand practically played itself.

The one thing that makes me pause is our implied odds if we hit look fantastic. But I'm not quite sure how to factor that into the equation.

Turn is fine, since we called the flop. I am seeing the river with the nut flush draw.

I'm certain someone will be along shortly to correct me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ArturiusX · #4 10-27-2005, 06:59 PM

I'll correct you;

we're getting 10:1 on the call.

VoraciousReader · #5 10-27-2005, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll correct you;

we're getting 10:1 on the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, we are, but I guess one thing I'm not good at is accounting for the (very real) possibility of this getting raised behind us. Or are we assuming here that everyone is in this for a while and we'll easily make up any raises we also have to call to see the turn with our gutshot and bdfd?

ArturiusX · #6 10-27-2005, 07:08 PM

Our equity is strong in this pot. A few more raises isn't going to kill us.

lautzutao · #7 10-27-2005, 07:44 PM

With no backdoor flush I'd agree with you. But overcards AND a BDF and it's worth a peel.

lautzutao · #8 10-27-2005, 07:46 PM

Hehe, for 32BB I'll call and hope that 3% of the time Partypoker [censored] up and awards me the pot.

NH