Party $15/30: 3 cold for the set?

LarsVegas · #1 05-07-2005, 09:05 AM

Full Party $15/30. UTG raises, one fold, UTG+2 3-bet, one fold, MP cold-calls, folded to me in cut-off with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I make a very rare cold-call. Rest of the action pretty irrelevant, I am playing this for set-value alone. If the flop is rainbow, I might peel one off for one small bet, and should it be checked to me on the turn, I will check too, so if I am ahead ever here (against perhaps a smaller pocket and two big aces), I only win when I get a VERY cheap ride to the river.

Too expensive to play for setvalue only here I presume?

How close is it? 99 in the same spot, fold too?

lars

stoxtrader · #2 05-07-2005, 09:16 AM

you can basically do the math pretty easily. you are approx 7.5:1 to flop a set, when you do you will need to average winning 8X your PF investment to make it profitable. To roughly account for the times you flop a set and lose, 10X win is a good rough estimate.

so if you win (not to be confused with pot size) 450 on this on average when you win its about break-even.

Equal · #3 05-07-2005, 01:55 PM

This one's pretty close. For me it would depend on my reads of the EP raisers. Will you get paid off big time if you hit (i.e. are they LAGgy? If they are tight decent players I would fold - I would need one more caller before I play.

PokerMike · #4 05-07-2005, 02:08 PM

How can you say its close? stox spelled it out in black and white, and its decidedly not close. Go in PT, game notes tab, get all, filter by 'Net' then see how many times you've won 450. This is what you will have to net in order to break even on the cold call.

mach3 · #5 05-07-2005, 02:20 PM

The "flop a set" odds aren't there. And you lose additional value from the chance of 88 winning a low, ragged board since you are probably up against a higher PP.

elindauer · #6 05-07-2005, 04:27 PM

Hi Lars,

As others have pointed out, you definitely are not getting odds to try to flop a set. You should only play pairs that you think have a reasonable chance of being best. If you're not raising a flop of all undercards, you can't play it.

Good luck.
Eric